Pollster Frank Luntz having difficulty finding Coakley supporters for focus group on election night of Massachusetts senate race

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Frank Luntz (AP)

Just about every election night, Republican pollster Frank Luntz assembles a focus group of likely voters to help predict election results. Tonight you can see Luntz interview an assembly of Massachusetts voters on Fox at 9:10 p.m. EST.

But you probably won’t see all the work that went into it. As of late this afternoon, Luntz was still scrambling to balance his focus group with supporters of Democrat Martha Coakley. “I just lost another one,” Luntz growled over his cell phone from a hotel ballroom at Logan Airport. In the last 24 hours, six Coakley voters have dropped out. By contrast, Luntz hasn’t lost a single supporter of her opponent, Scott Brown.

The problem isn’t money. “They’re getting paid well,” Luntz says, “probably more than they’re making at their jobs. And they still don’t want to do it.”

Instead, says Luntz, they’re ashamed. “They don’t want to be on television defending Martha Coakley. It’s passé. It’s socially unacceptable. I never dreamed I’d see Democrats in Massachusetts embarrassed to admit they’re Democrats.”

In all his years of running focus groups, Luntz remembers only a single other experience like this one. It was January of 2004, in Iowa. In the days before the caucuses, Howard Dean, the frontrunner, seemed to collapse from within. Dean’s weakness wasn’t obvious at first. Luntz figured it out when Dean supporters who’d agreed to appear on his MSNBC-sponsored focus group suddenly canceled.

“All my Dean people quit two days out,” he remembers. By election night, the panel remained unbalanced. “Chris Matthews accused me on the air of tanking the group to help John Kerry. I’m still pissed about it.” Ignoring Luntz, Matthews predicted a Dean win. The former Vermont governor came in third.

It all comes back to Luntz now as he works to find bodies willing to represent Martha Coakley. “This is the definition of collapse,” he says.

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33 Comments (18 Threads)

  1. thehoosierslant

    Watch those Independent Voters. Not always your friend.

    The Independent Voter, the Birds, and the Beasts

    http://thehoosierslant.com/

  2. goprules

    Any Democrat willing to appear on POX News should have their head examined. They weren’t running from Martha, they were running from POX.

  3. catherine

    Most of us who are residents of the the Commonwealth of Massachusetts do not speak with any discernable accent. We neither pahk our kahs in Ha-vud Yahd.” nor do we offer liquid refreshment by saying “he-ah, have a be-ah.
    Wicked Pissah, isn’t it?

  4. republicat

    Evidently, he had a hard time finding ACTUAL residents of Massachusetts as well. Hardly a single person in the focus group had even the slightest New England accent (except for a woman in the back who disagreed with Luntz and the rest of the crowd). The jig was up when an overzealous kid blurted out, “I just lost my health insurance!” which, of course, is impossible in the state of Massachusetts that already has socialized health care thanks to Mitt Romney. Yet another sham perpetrated by Luntz and Hannity. No surprise, they’ve been ruining our credibility for years!

  5. patrick

    sorry… did not see the http://www.gravatar.com

    got it now. thanks adam

  6. patrick

    how do I replace the weird “g” with a pic or avtar of my own?? anybody??

    • adamincalifornia

      gravatar.com

      Register with the email associated with your account here. Upload an avatar and it will start showing up.

      • des1

        Well, I’m part way there. If my avatar starts showing up, then thanks. If not, then I’m obviously too technologically incompetent to pull it off. {sigh}

    • patrick

      I must be the incompetent one… I don’t see a place to register.. I am logged in, I see where we can “edit” our info, but nowhere do I see the ability to upload an avtar.

  7. patrick

    ohio-

    that appears to be a ten year old blog entry on a fringe blog with no comments…….. am I missing something? dude…

  8. queenb

    This is only the beginning!
    November 2010 is going to be a sad, dark day for liberals.
    Let the revolution begin!

    • upstater85

      Oh yeah…

      Just remember, this has NOTHING to do with Obama or Democrats or Progressives or …

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