“His overall job approval rating is at 46 from a high of 68, and has been under 50 percent for some time now. He’d already lost whatever Republican support he had. He is holding onto some Democratic support, there are some people who are still holding out hope, but it’s really the independents who have changed their minds,” continued Selzer. “They’re not tied to any one party, and here in Iowa you are judged not only on what you do but on how what you do is being talked about.”
This week the president unveiled a new scaled-down version of his health-care bill, and continued to push for reform.
“I think health care is one of the culprits, and our poll bears this out, but the bigger problem here is the budget deficit. There is a real concern about out-of-control spending by the federal government, and voters are nervous,” Selzer said.
Taking a pulse on health-care reform she says is, “one more way of getting a metric that shows that people are unhappy and nervous. He gets a better number on how he’s dealing with the economy, but it’s not just that. Specifically people are worried about the spending.”
Iowa is a proving ground for any politician looking to win over the rest of the country.
“Many things begin and end in Iowa. What Obama did a few years ago was redefine who is in the Iowa caucus — the number of people at the Democratic caucus in 2008 was roughly doubly the number in 2004,” Selzer pointed out. “For many of those people it was their first time caucusing — these people are independents, they are not tied to any party.”
At the time of the 2008 elections, the Iowa independents signaled what was going to happen in the rest of the primary. “Remember, Clinton was winning when there was a closed primary — Obama did better in an open primary were people could walk in the door and register that day,” she says
Selzer admitted that it is hard to tell to what extent the latest Iowa poll will translate to the national level. In the midterm elections later this year voter turnout in many places will depend more on whether there is a contested Senate or governor’s race than how people feel about the president.
“How much this will be nationalized is hard to tell,” she said.
Contact Aleksandra at ak@dailycaller.com.





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