What’s social campaigning got to do with it?

Among all of the major Colorado candidates’ websites, they have the basic email sign-up options and advocacy/grassroots action centers. Additionally, as of penning this piece, they are using Facebook (Bennet has 2,632 fans, Romanoff has 2,056 fans, Norton has 1,421 fans, Buck has 1,504 fans and Weins has 748 fans), Twitter (Bennet has 945 followers, Norton has 706 followers, Weins has 355 followers, Romanoff has 342 followers and Buck has 334 followers) and YouTube (Bennet has 1,060 channel views, Romanoff has 500 channel views, Weins has 214 channel views and Norton has 186 channel views). Buck is the only candidate who doesn’t appear to have a YouTube channel. All five candidates are also using Flickr.

The other social campaigning tools tell a much different story—with MySpace (important among younger voters) only being used by the two Democrats. Bennet and Buck are using SMS/text features, while Romanoff and Norton are using campaign blogs. Romanoff is the only candidate with a LinkedIn account, and none of the candidates are using Digg or widgets.

In other states with endangered Democratic incumbents on the ballot—like Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada as well as Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania—social media could very well be the deciding factor for their political fate. All three incumbents are going toe-to-toe with their respective challengers on incorporating social campaigning activities—but considering the bigger election problem of their growing unpopularity among the electorate, they each could be doing more with Digg and Widgets, as well as using some other communication tools. For example Lincoln is not using SMS/text or LinkedIn, Reid is not using MySpace or LinkedIn and Specter is not using a blog or Flickr.

Illinois and Missouri are two other races to watch.

In Illinois, Republican Rep. Mark Kirk leads the Democratic nominee, Alexi Giannoulias, in most polls providing yet another fall campaign that could be decided by social media strategies. For the most part, Kirk has demonstrated a commanding use of Facebook and Twitter thus far, but Giannoulias is poised to use other social media outlets where Kirk is absent—including SMS/text messaging and MySpace; Giannoulias also posts better YouTube numbers than his Republican opponent.

A close Senate race in Missouri between Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan should come as no surprise since the Show Me State is often characterized as a bellwether in American politics. The mere fact that this race is pitting two of the state’s political dynasties against one another just makes it that much more interesting.

Ross suggests that the eventual winning campaign must develop a credible social voice.

“Both Blunt and Carnahan will need to focus on developing credible voices for their social media efforts,” said Ross of the tight battle in Missouri. “These voices will need to be more engaging, personal, humble, authentic and participatory than traditional, push advertising and mass broadcast messages.”

Missouri voted for John McCain over Barrack Obama in the 2008 presidential election by a very small margin 49.39 percent to 49.25 percent, or a difference of only 3,903 votes. Using past campaign analysis, social media will likely provide the deciding “get-out-the-vote” edge for the eventual winner. Both Blunt and Carnahan appear to have picked their social campaigning favorites, with Blunt showing strength on Facebook (2,053 fans) and Twitter (5,237 followers), as well as publishing a political blog, while Carnahan is showing a 2-to-1 edge on YouTube with 498 channel views and also a presence on MySpace. Ironically enough, in a race that will likely be very close (in 2006, Sen. Claire McCaskill defeated incumbent Sen. Jim Talent by a margin of 49.6 percent to 47.3 percent), neither candidate is currently using Digg or Widgets to disseminate key campaign messages—or other emerging strategies such as iPhone applications.