Who are the swing votes for ObamaCare?

As Steven Erteld of LifeNews.com writes, “The strategy to win over Stupak and his colleagues has, so far, centered on two ideas: deny and negotiate. Pelosi has gone out of her way to deny that abortion funding is in the Senate health care bill while she and her top lieutenants talk about a companion bill that could be passed alongside the Senate bill and reconciliation measure to pacify Stupak.”

It does not appear to be working. Stupak’s bloc appears to be holding firm, promising not to vote for the Senate version—regardless of promises to “fix” it in reconciliation. But while many social conservatives I talk to are convinced Stupak will not be swayed by promises or threats, on his national radio show on Monday, Rush Limbaugh said, “Folks, don’t be surprised if Stupak caves at the end of the day.”

Democrats also risk losing seven members who voted for the bill, but have since became displeased with the handling of the health care bill—or have come under pressure from voters in their conservative districts to oppose it. Members of this list include Reps. Michael Arcuri (N.Y.), Marion Berry (Ark.), Steve Driehaus (Ohio), Brad Ellsworth (Ind.), Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.), Earl Pomeroy (N.D.). While these members were willing to risk voting for health care last year, as Election Day approaches, their willingness to take unpopular stances for the sake of their president may diminish.

But Republicans also have to worry about attrition. There are sixteen Democrats who voted “no” on the House bill in November who—based on news reports and recent statements—appear poised to switch their votes due to the intense pressure coming from Speaker Pelosi and the White House.

This list of possible vote-switchers includes Reps. John Adler (N.J.), Betsy Markey (Colo.), Bart Gordon (Tenn.), Allen Boyd (Fla.), Jason Altmire (Pa.), Frank Kratovil (Md.), Brian Baird (Wash.), John Barrow (Ga.), John Boccieri (Ohio), John Tanner (Tenn.), Glenn Nye (Va.), Rick Boucher (Va.), Larry Kissell (N.C.), Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), Michael McMahon (N.Y.), and Scott Murphy (N.Y.). Making matters worse, many of these members are retiring and, thus, can vote for Obamacare without having to worry about standing before the voters.

Activists hoping to lobby “undecided” or “persuadable” members of Congress to oppose or support Obamacare would do well to begin calling members on these lists first.

One thing is for sure, things are moving at warp speed. This column may have a short shelf life.

Matt Lewis is a conservative writer and blogger, based in Alexandria, Va.