Why Palin shouldn’t run in 2012

First, the path that she has chosen this year has gone in almost the exact opposite direction of where she would need to go in order to be a threat to Obama in 2012. In fact, this seems so obvious that I can only conclude (since I know her to be a very intelligent person) that she has no intention of running and simply keeping the door open so as to augment her relevance as she campaigns for others in 2010.

By joining Fox News Channel and fully embracing the Tea Party movement (both of which are fantastic in concept but far less than perfect in practice) I believe she has sealed herself off from having any chance to change the minds that she would have to persuade to be viable against Obama. This includes the vast majority of the over seventy percent of voters which polls show think she is “not qualified” to be president, as well as numerous die-hard Republicans who have unfortunately (and despite my best efforts) already completely bought into the media’s negative view of her.

Palin is already revered by large portions of the Fox audience and Tea Party crowd, which only make up approximately thirty percent of the voting populace. While enhancing her standing with this faction would obviously help her in a primary battle (in which I still think she would be extremely formidable), it actually harms her in the minds of the thirty percent of open-minded “independents” who actually determine Presidential elections. Because both Fox News and the Tea Parties have been so vilified by the media in the minds of these voters, Palin will be put further (and perhaps permanently) into the box of being a far-right “wing nut,” which is more than ironic considering she was chosen as McCain’s VP largely because of her willingness to rise above partisanship.

There is also a huge opportunity cost here considering the other paths she could have chosen (you can’t tell me ABC’s “This Week” with a new host wouldn’t have killed to have Palin join them as weekly commentator) which would have increased her “gravitas,” limited the risk of overexposure, and given her proper access to the type of people she would need to eventually win over. She was great on the “Tonight Show,’ but no one is going to change their perception that she is not presidential timber by watching her be lightly questioned by Jay Leno and doing stand up comedy.

The other danger of the Fox/Tea Party route is that it undoubtedly gives the Obama campaign a treasure trove of potential negative campaign commercials against her. After all, the “Hope/Change” gang showed us endless ads with a simple photo of John McCain hugging a two-term President who once had an 89% approval rating. Just think of what mischief they would come up with as they tied her tangentially to all sorts of people they could easily made to look like nut jobs.

I am sure there will be a lot of counter arguments to my thesis, so let me try to deal with them up front.