Iraq’s political stalemate: Democracy’s endgame?

Meanwhile, as national heavyweights Maliki and Allawi duke it out for Iraq’s premiership, followers of firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who led a high-profile Shi’a insurgency against the American occupation, have emerged as political kingmakers. Both allies and adversaries believe that the Sadrists will seize at least forty seats in the new parliament, which would carry the populist movement to a clear majority in the Iraqi National Alliance. This Shi’a coalition, that once bore al-Maliki to the Prime Minister’s office, may now attempt to recast itself as a stubborn obstacle to their erstwhile party boss’s incumbency.

If this is the case, then Sadr’s hand will rock the cradle of this nascent democracy from his exile in Iran, with former Pentagon-favorite Ahmed Chalabi side-kicking as his éminence grise. For American interests in Iraq, this development is alarming. The Sadrists have refused any meaningful contact with our military and diplomats since 2003, so a political revival is unlikely to soften their stance as U.S. combat troops prepare to leave over the next year.

At this rate, just forming a government from a coalition of willing parties will prove difficult. Major doubts surrounding the resource-rich city of Kirkuk, draft oil legislation and the indomitable Kurdish question, remain. Iraq’s civil institutions may not be strong enough to thumb the dike as sectarian groups defend their interests in a political vacuum.

Unfortunately, a “stalemate” isn’t just a lousy end to a chess match—it’s a no-win situation for all parties involved. And that kind of deadlock seems to be shaping up in Iraq. With that said, whatever government emerges would do well to remember that it is solely the product of an Iraqi electorate that confronted mortal danger to affirm its faith in democracy.

Let’s hope the people of Iraq get the government they deserve.

Reid Smith has worked as a research associate specializing on U.S. policy in the Middle East and as a political speechwriter. His graduate work at American University’s School of International Service was focused on the politics of Shi’a majority in Iraq.