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Managing U.S.-China policy

Despite the diplomatically cordial meeting between the US and Chinese leaders and China’s likely decision to modify its currency, political pressure in Congress, and other quarters, for a more aggressive China policy is mounting. Beyond currency manipulation, various other issues continue to generate fierce debate on the increasingly complex and troubled U.S.-China relationship.

Emerging strengthened from the global recession with greater international leverage, China’s rhetoric grew increasingly hostile and unnecessarily provocative. It has seriously risked overplaying its hand. It threatens to destabilize much of Asia, already wary of rapid Chinese growth, and undermine volatile bilateral relations with the U.S. Furthermore, such rhetoric can only fuel greater uncertainty in a fragile world struggling to recover from economic turbulence.

Since the U.S. extended full diplomatic recognition to mainland China in 1979, certain rules of engagement prevailed. It was understood that Taiwan would not declare independence, the mainland would not invade, and the U.S. would provide for Taiwan’s security, as required by U.S. law. Unification would take place by mutual consent at an undetermined future date. Furthermore, U.S. presidents regularly met with the Dalai Lama since 1991 expressing support for Tibetans’ cultural and religious freedoms but not an independent Tibet.

With greater self-confidence, or rather over-confidence, China has been challenging these traditional standard operating procedures. This was clearly on display when President Barack Obama recently met the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader. The customary Chinese reaction of disapproval was replaced by a rhetorically aggressive overreaction. In addition, the usual sale of largely defensive weapons to Taiwan was met with unusually harsher threats.

President Obama must firmly stand his ground. Failure to do so will only embolden the Chinese to defy and strong-arm others. Caving in will only make the Asia-Pacific region, and wider world, a less safe place.

There is a fundamental need for continuous engagement, improving dialogue, avoiding animosity and developing greater collective initiatives. President Obama’s threat of sanctions in late 2009 over tires for political gain with his trade union constituents unnecessarily risked triggering a trade war. On the other hand, direct Chinese threats against American interests, including Boeing over the Taiwan issue, are simply counterproductive and must not be tolerated. Both sides must avert confrontation due to the catastrophic consequences for all.

In either public or private, China will not take orders from the U.S. or anyone else. Not only did Obama’s rhetorical magic not work in China, he received a public dressing down by Chinese officials. It was simply a reminder of new global realities. Ultimately, no one will tame China. It must tame itself, for its own benefit and interest and for the sake of international stability. However, others must not stand by idly. Collective influence must be exerted when necessary. China must not be diplomatically spared on the Iran nuclear issue. Mounting multilateral pressure must continue. Should greater Russian support for sanctions materialize, China risks being isolated among the U.N. Security Council’s Permanent Five.

A paradoxical dualism emerges in Chinese rhetoric. On the one hand, its officials sulk in reminding others that China is still a poor nation struggling to develop. On the other hand, its eagerness to throw its weight around exudes Soviet-era bravado.

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