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Managing U.S.-China policy

Greater economic interdependence and convergence of interests have inevitably drawn together the destinies of both countries, including the wider international community. Consumers globally have benefited with access to less expensive Chinese products. Yet the livelihoods of millions have disappeared causing serious dislocation and animosity toward China, particularly from developing countries, many who simultaneously benefit from Chinese investment.

China’s rapid military buildup largely targets U.S. influence. Yet China has benefited immensely from the safe passage of resources and free flow of commerce that has fuelled its growth since 1980. The U.S. Navy, and particularly its Seventh Fleet, has provided this security by continuously patrolling shipping lanes from the Persian Gulf to East Asia. China’s lack of military transparency risks greater instability and a regional nuclear arms race, particularly with India. Arguably, it is already under way.

Just as global trade largely depends on the stability of the high seas, the internet requires a secure environment for the efficient flow of daily transactions and correspondences worldwide. Thus far, China has failed to adequately address the countless cyber-attacks emanating from its territory on western targets, primarily private and public sector critical infrastructure. This poses a real threat to national and international security and global commerce. U.S. foreign policy must continuously insist on greater Chinese accountability.

The hope that western commercial engagement would somehow bring about political liberalization in China has largely faded away. China will not become a western-style democracy anytime soon, and perhaps never will. Any change will ultimately come from within. External influence will be minimal at most and provoke a reaction at least. China’s evolution will take place within the context of its own historical development. Collective interests will trump individual rights, particularly as determined by the Communist party which aims to preserve its power through “harmonious” development. Western pressure and demands for greater transparency and accountability in its commercial interests, particularly protection of intellectual property rights, must be unyielding. It means jobs and security.

Violations of human rights and minority rights must be condemned but expectations of what can be achieved must be kept in check. On this, be prepared for the long haul. The overlap and balance between profit and civil liberties will inevitably remain a lingering challenge, and at times prove irreconcilable. Google’s re-location to Hong Kong, which risks foregoing enormous revenues, will not be the first and final story of its kind.

Marco Vicenzino is director of the Global Strategy Project in Washington, D.C. He provides global political risk analysis for corporations and regular commentary on foreign affairs for publications/media outlets worldwide. He can be reached at msv@globalsp.org.

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