Voters head to the polls in Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina Tuesday for primary elections. In the age of the Tea Parties and anti-incumbency sentiment, all three should give some insight into whether 2010 really will be a down-with-the-establishment year.
The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza noted in his pre-election analysis that in the Senate races in all three states, the national party has made clear its preferred nominee. If the so-called establishment candidates, he wrote, “wind up as their respective parties’ nominees, it’s worth re-examining the idea that the establishment wings of both parties will be upended this summer and fall.”
The establishment candidates are favored to win all three races. If they don’t, the upset would be a good sign for the Tea Partiers.
Here’s a rundown of the three states:
• In Indiana, the race to watch is the Republican nomination for retiring Sen. Evan Bayh’s seat. Former Sen. Dan Coats, who held the seat 12 years ago, is the favorite and recent polls show him likely to win the nomination, besting former Rep. John Hostettler and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman.
Indicative of the grassroots support behind Coats’s primary rivals, Hostettler has the endorsement of Rep. Ron Paul and Tea Party favorite Jim DeMint’s endorsement of Stutzman fueled the campaign with $100,000, Stutzman’s campaign said.
According to the Star Tribune, an early campaign gaffe became emblematic for Coats, who maintained a residence in North Carolina after retiring from the Senate. When stopping by a local deli to talk to voters, he was asked by a couple where he lives and had to explain he was leasing property in Indianapolis.
One statewide poll released this week, according WFPL news, has Coats at 36 percent — 12 points ahead of Hostettler and 18 more than Stutzman.
The winner of the primary will face the Democrats recruit, Rep. Brad Ellsworth.
• In North Carolina, watch the Democratic fight for the chance to challenge Republican Sen. Richard Burr. Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is running against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and attorney Ken Lewis.
Cunningham has the support of the Democratic establishment, which hopes the former state senator will be able to get more than 40 percent of the vote to win the primary outright without a run-off. That would prevent extending a bruising battle within the party, and allow Democrats to focus on the general.
A run-off, if necessary, will be in April and the winner will face Burr in November.
• In Ohio, keep an eye on the Democratic Senate primary of Democratic establishment candidate Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher versus Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. The latest Quinnipiac poll has Fisher leading Brunner by 20 points.
The Columbus Dispatch reported that Brunner, out of money for TV ads, took to black churches in the state on Monday. Fisher is spending more than $1 million on ads, according to the newspaper.
The Democratic candidate will face former Rep. Rob Portman in November.