LCG Election Monitor – Obama’s summer window of opportunity

As we move closer to the fall elections it might make sense to revisit 1994 and compare the key political indices of that time to the current situation.  The below chart should scare any Democrat reading this post:

A quick review of the key political metrics suggests that Democrats will most likely lose the House this fall.  This, by the way, is not necessarily the worst thing that could happen for a President Obama running for re-election.  Gridlock in Congress would provide him with political cover for an extended recession or slow recovery, as well as giving Obama and the Democrats something to run against in two years.

The biggest problem for Democrats might be that among energized/interested voters, the gap on the generic congressional ballot is even higher (in the Republican +6 range).  The problems for Democrats nationally are extensive and notable:

• Voter interest is higher among GOP leaning and Independent voters than Democrats
• Congressional approval is an historic low
• The President’s approval rating among Independents is only 40%
• The “re-elect” numbers are at or near historic lows and there are substantially more Democrats than Republicans in office
• The engaged voters are angry about spending and the stimulus package; this gives the GOP a huge advantage

Now whether the above translates into a thirty or a fifty seat gain for Republicans remains to be seen, but unless Democrats and the President can turn things around a bit this summer, November 2^nd will be an unpleasant day.

Thanks to John Zirinsky and Peter Ventimiglia for their thoughts and insights.  Follow us onTwitter and read our perspectives and others’ on Pollster.com or the Daily Caller.