Lame duck session poses threat to Democrats in November

With opposition ranging between 61 percent to 87 percent, these voters reject “raising taxes on married couples,” “raising income taxes on all wage earners,” “reducing the tax credit for people with children,” and “raising the tax rate on income from dividends or interest.  Majorities of Republicans and Independents oppose all these tax hikes, while Democrats split (40 to 40 percent) on “increasing the number of families paying the alternative minimum tax,” and support (50 percent) “raising the estate tax rate” and (56 percent) “raising the tax rate on capital gains.”

If the Democrat majority in Congress does not act to stop the looming tax increases, Independents are less likely to support Democrat candidates for House and Senate this November by a 57 to 18 percent margin.  Democrats are split with 36 percent more likely to support their own candidate and 31 percent less likely.

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Geithner rejected extending all of the tax relief measures saying, “I don’t believe it should and I don’t believe it will.” If Democrats  enact only targeted tax relief (i.e., marriage penalty, child tax credit, 10% bracket only) they will be opposed by the vast majority of Republicans and Independents on the tax cuts they do not extend, while making clear not only whose taxes will remain at current levels but also whose will be going up.  Yet, failing to enact any tax relief before adjourning for the November elections will also make voters less likely to vote for Democrats.

All incumbents in both parties seeking re-election should be asked if they will pledge not to vote for controversial bills like tax increases, cap-and-trade legislation, card check or immigration reform in a lame duck session of Congress after the elections.  Democrats who do so will make it harder for the current majority to pass these unpopular policies (and will make clear to liberal voters that any secret plan to do so is not viable).  If they do not make that pledge, their voters will be able to cast an informed vote on their incumbent representative or senator in November.

The Democratic majorities in Congress are in the unenviable position of being damned if they do, damned if they don’t.  The key is for Republicans to smoke them out, not allowing them to hide their intentions from the voters in November.

Ed Gillespie is a former chairman of the Republican National Committee and Counselor to President Bush.