Washington mayoral race hinges on education — and especially Michelle Rhee

When it comes to D.C. public schools and the mayoral election, there is a lot at stake.

“It’s really remarkable what Rhee has been able to do,” Mike Petrilli, vice president of the education policy think tank, Fordham Institute, told TheDC. “Reform is hard in any city — especially D.C.”

“But the reason Rhee has made so much progress is because she’s had the full backing of Fenty,” said Petrilli. “Having the support of the mayor is indispensable.”

Both Petrilli and Whitehurst pointed out that the underlying problem here is that the office of D.C. school chancellor is tied so heavily to whoever happens to be in office.

“The chronic problem of urban school districts is that they can’t hold on to superintendents,” said Whitehurst. “So it’s very hard for reform to gain traction because of change in power.”

So in many ways, Rhee is up for reelection just as much as Fenty is although her name won’t be on the ballot. Plus, she’s both a liability and a benefit to both candidates. Rhee is what is keeping Fenty at the level he is in the polls, yet she’s also probably partly the reason he’s not any higher.

In Gray’s case, anger over Rhee’s drastic changes is likely to get him elected. Yet immediately removing her from office will have a negative effect on his momentum. Not to mention the fact that finding someone suitable to take her place could take up to a year or longer.

“It’s damned if you do, damned if you don’t,” said Petrilli.

“People threatened by the changes she’s made will send her out of town,” he added. “And the system will go back to not rocking the boat, instead of charging ahead with reforms.”

Since Rhee took over the District’s fledgling school system, moderate improvements have been made. Enrollment has stopped declining and significant improvements have been made in math and reading scores for 4^th and 8^th graders.

Skeptics may say that does not sound like much, but when urban school districts across the country have been struggling for years, it’s a step in the right direction. In fact, a recent Fordham Institute study found that D.C. is now among the nation’s top reform-friendly cities, along with New York, New Orleans, Denver, Charlotte, Jacksonville, Houston, Austin and Fort Worth.

The worst cities on the list? San Jose, San Diego, Albany, Philadelphia, Gary, and Detroit.

The hope for D.C. residents is that regardless of who is mayor, D.C. does not ever return to the bottom of that list. “I would hope anyone who’s mayor would be committed to strategies that look promising,” said Whiteurst.