LCG Election Monitor: Midterms are an electoral hurricane for Democrats

Current Political Environment

There is no doubt that the White House is now fully engaged in the midterm elections. The question will be whether this is too little, too late. Real world events have a way of either complementing or distorting/diminishing the president’s message as his party tries to hold Congress. We are getting some key month’s end economic data this week and it will impact voter attitudes. Here are some observations on the current political milieu:

1. The “pledge” is a winner for the GOP if it does no harm. The pledge is important for Republicans because of the signal it sends to voters, not because of any specific policy agenda item. If voters have a neutral to slightly positive impression of the pledge it will have done its job. The goal of the pledge was to help clarify the GOP brand and toward that end we think it generally works. On the other hand, don’t expect any big boost for Republican candidates as a result of the unveiling.
2. The focus on Christine O’Donnell’s controversial comments may doom her candidacy in Delaware but it will have little effect on the GOP as a whole.  This is all about her personally and there will be little residual impact on Republicans elsewhere or the Tea Party.
3. There has been a substantive drop in Obama’s approval rating that is reflected in perceptions of his ability to handle issues. The recent Politico/GWU/Battleground poll asked who voters thought would be better in handling certain issues: Obama or Republicans in Congress. On turning around the economy, 49% chose the GOP while only 41% selected Obama. On creating jobs, 51% picked Republicans in Congress while only 40% chose Obama.
4. The economy remains the number one issue but likely voters are being driven by two secondary but potent issues: 1) perceptions that the stimulus (and TARP) was a government handout and a failure and 2) that the healthcare reform law was an example of too much government intrusion and over-reach. While some in Washington still find it difficult to believe, anger over the deficit and spending in general is what is driving the likely midterm voter and it is a powerful and emotional issue.
5. On the economy, the political problem continues to be one of unmet expectations. People expected things to get better more quickly than they have. The country lost 7.6 million jobs since the start of the recession in December of 2007, but we have only recently begun adding jobs over the last few months (and at an awfully slow rate). It will likely take years to add back those jobs. Similarly, household net worth has recovered only four percentage points of the 21% lost according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. The problem was that people expected things to get better much, much faster. That has hurt Obama and Democrats as much as anything.

Thanks again to John Zirinsky and Peter Ventimiglia for their insights and contributions. For real-time reactions to events and more thoughts on the public opinion environment, please follow us on Twitter @lcgpolling.