TheDC Election Outlook: Democrats fighting furiously to maintain hold on the Senate

Delaware: If Democrats retain control of the Senate by limiting their losses to nine seats, this race will be cited as the biggest lost opportunity for Republicans. Christine O’Donnell has failed to close the gap that has separated her from Democrat Chris Coons since her stunning in the August primary.

O’Donnell rode Tea Party support to her primary win, but has done little in the last five weeks to reduce Coons’ lead from about 15 points. She showed signs of desperation in the last week, running an ad that began with the line, “I’m not a witch,” and breaking her self-imposed exile from interviews with media other than Fox News by talking to CNN.

Washington: This looks like the race Republicans have the best chance of winning. Republican Dino Rossi, a businessman who has run for governor twice in the last six years, has pulled even with Democrat incumbent Sen. Patty Murray and has lead in a few recent polls.

Murray went on the air in early September and pulled ahead by a few points, but in late September both the National Republican Senatorial Committee and independent group Crossroads GPS pumped a combined $4 million into Washington on Rossi’s behalf. The ads, three-quarters of them being paid for by the NRSC, will run through Nov. 2.

Rossi’s key message is that Murray has been a part of Washington’s spend-too-much culture, and that he would be a fiscal hawk. A recent NRSC ad said Murray’s record is “18 years of reckless spending,” and hitting her votes in favor of the Wall Street bailout bill, the $814 billion stimulus, and Obama’s health care bill. Murray’s counterattack has been to paint Rossi as a Wall Street toadie because of his past minority ownership stake in a bank that came under scrutiny from federal regulators.

This is the first installment of an ongoing series about Senate races in the midterm elections that will appear every Monday leading up to Election Day.

Email Jon Ward and follow him on Twitter