The GOP’s Road to 51: GOTV

This is the fifth in a series of articles looking at the races most likely to determine whether Republicans capture or Democrats hold the majority in the U.S. Senate after Election Day.

In Nevada, where Majority Leader Harry Reid is defending his U.S. Senate seat and his son is running for governor, 70 paid staffers have been on the ground — in some cases for months — ginning up support and organizing efforts for the final weeks of the campaign.  Another 3,000 volunteers have been deployed throughout the state to knock on doors, distribute leaflets and make phone calls.

Now that early voting has begun, a shuttle service will operate all along the Las Vegas Strip to transport hospitality workers to the polls.  Unions will provide not only the shuttle service but thousands of workers who will spend their off-hours — and in some cases their working hours — assisting Democratic candidates in what the Las Vegas Review-Journal has called the largest get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program in Nevada history.

And what unions can’t contribute, Democratic-allied organizations, such as MoveOn.org, Organizing for America (OFA) and others, will.  These organizations, experienced from the fight that delivered the White House and both houses of Congress to Democrats in 2008, will deploy highly trained canvassing operations that understand the importance of person-to-person contact.

So, when polls show Sharron Angle, Reid’s Tea Party-backed Republican challenger, even in the race, it doesn’t actually mean she’s even.  It means, of those who haven’t answered the door to a campaign worker, haven’t received a call from a phone bank and haven’t had any other personal contact with either campaign…of those people, roughly half say they will vote for her.

Voter enthusiasm is nice — and Angle’s supporters seem uncommonly motivated.  But enthusiasm won’t be enough unless Angle’s campaign can match her opponent’s GOTV efforts.  And that won’t be easy.

Why?  There are a number of reasons.  One is philosophy.  As progressive political organizer Robert Creamer notes, Democrats rely on face-to-face, door-to-door communications.  Republicans, meanwhile, “are much more prone to rely on paid telephone contacts and mail,” Creamer says.

Creamer claims to have research to show the Democrats have this right — “one knock on the door within 72 hours of the election can increase turnout by 12.5%.” He goes on to report that another knock can boost it almost as much again, but a live phone contact nets only a 2.5 percent to 3 percent increase in turnout.

Another reason: The Republican National Committee (RNC), which traditionally handles GOTV for House and Senate candidates, basically announced early on that it was punting this cycle.  It is low on money and will spend much of what it has on TV ads and other last-minute items, such as mailings and electronic outreach.

So, when it comes to money for get-out-the-vote operations or to bring in Hill staffers and others who traditionally join campaigns for the stretch run — the RNC will be close to a no-show in 2010.  Other Republican groups are attempting to fill in these gaps, but that means candidates will be turning to groups and personnel new to the process, which means inexperience, which will further hamstring the Republican effort.

Next: the GOP's GOTV problems aren't limited to Nevada