Politics

TheDC Election Outlook: Election analysts now debating what to call presumed Republican victory

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Chris Moody
Contributor

In a stunning turn of events, the analysts who study election results have changed their predictions: Republicans could win more than ever expected, they say.

The expert election handicappers, statisticians and election analysts aren’t even using the word “if” anymore to describe the possibility of the GOP winning back control of the House, which the party lost in two fiercely anti-GOP cycles in 2006 and 2008. The better question on everyone’s mind, instead, is whether Tuesday night will be a “landslide,” a “tsunami” or a host of other catastrophic metaphors. Take your pick.

Regardless of what you call it, any optimism shown by Democratic leaders in television interviews is pure show in these final hours before the polls close on Tuesday night. President Obama is warning Republicans not to get “cocky,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine still sports a poker face when he says Democrats will stay in control, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has never once wavered in her confidence that she will keep her gavel.

“The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating,” writes veteran election handicapper Charlie Cook. “[I]f anything it has intensified.”

New York Times election statistician Nate Silver said Sunday that it should not be surprising if Republicans net as many as 78 seats. With nearly 100 Democrat-held seats well in play, the idea that 2011 could see the largest freshman class in nearly 20 years is not too far fetched. In his final prediction, election expert Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia has upped the Republican wave to 55 seats.

Of the few Republicans who were once looking threatened, only one, Louisiana Rep. Joseph Cao, still appears to be in some trouble. So instead of focusing on any hope of picking up any Republican incumbent seats, Democrats by this point are pouring resources into seats they merely hope can be salvaged.

In fact, more money has been spent this election cycle to keep Democrats in office than Republicans have spent in their effort to turn Congress a deeper shade of red.

Of course, there is always that slim chance that everyone’s wrong.

If that happens?

“There’s always a chance, we’re talking about human nature,” Cook said last week. “But I’ll be sacking groceries if that’s happening.”

It’s more than probable that Mr. Cook is not losing sleep over losing his day job on Nov. 3.

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  • sanjay

    GOP to Obama: Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran! Bankrupt us! Let gas go to 9$ a gallon. Lets destroy this country with more debt, more deficit and more costly wars.

    Lets bomb iran!

    • thephranc

      Why would bombing a country with negligible oil exports that has to import gas send gas prices to $9?

  • Another Scorpio

    Scorpioman, you are a Decrease to my Birth Sign

    • scorpioman

      Keep fear alive!

  • scorpioman

    I can’t wait to watch what happens if republicans get some power. I’m excited and my birthday is just days away.

    • jonavark

      Happy birthday D.S. Hope you can blow out all seven candles. I’ll bet you can.

  • http://apollospaeks.townhall.com apollospeaks

    THE DEATHS OF TED KENNEDY AND JOHN MURTHA AND THE COMING DEBACLE OF NEW DEAL LIBERALISM (WITH POSTSCRIPTS ON THE DEATH OF ROBERT BYRD AND THE RETIREMENT OF PATRICK KENNEDY)

    Click my name to read this piece on my NUMBER ONE blog at townhall.com

  • student1776

    Hopefully this is a complete catastrophe for the Democrats – something so severe that for a generation or more they learn the lesson that when you spit in the face of the American by cramming legislation they manifestly reject down their throats you are committing career suicide. Hopefully the Republicans watch, learn the same lesson and govern the way the Tea Party and mainstream want and not the way the lobbyists want.

    • flips

      I’m sure the Corporate Republicans are excited, ready, and eager to take the advice of the Tea Party grassroots.

      They are your servants, now.

      • jonavark

        oh kay flips.. suppose you tell us what a corporate Republican is..

        And while you are at it you tell us why there are no corporate Democrats.

  • flips

    Tea Party legislators will face a few big issues right off the bat.

    1. Should they really shut down the government spending bills?

    2. Who really controls the GOP, is it the Tea Party or Wall Street?

    3. Should stimulus checks to states be cut off?

    4. Should the already implemented parts of HCR that people are enjoying be turned back and control over our healthcare handed back to insurance companies?

    Good luck folks, you wanted the job, now you have to do it.

    • The_anniebanannie

      “Good luck folks, you wanted the job, now you have to do it.:

      Which should have been said about Obama for the last two years, but instead you enabled the “he inherited this mess” mantra.

      • bellh

        Bring it on time for the teenagers to sit down and learn its not a big job it is made crazy by baby’s crying when they need to grow up bring it,Time to change the radicals defund and cut food stamps in half keep other half but you work part time at community centers if on welfare 100% cut and you work community center now no more trash in streets paint on buildings because we keep everyone involved in it keeping it clean,Get free health care you work it off also if you tie work to free stuff you have less on it that’s a fact.and you libs don’t bash my solution with racist rich guy iam self employed got let go 3years ago so hard daily work pays nice ive become quite happy not a first though.

        • PolyIndependent

          I actually in agreement with a lot of that. But I’d add one more big one – if you have a kid while on public assistance, you are no longer eligible for public assistance. Period.

          • jonavark

            but lemme guess.. you like the anchor baby law..

          • PolyIndependent

            jonavark

            but lemme guess.. you like the anchor baby law..

            ———–

            I’m actually the exact opposite. I would be in favor of a moratorium on any/all new immigration at this point. I think we’ve allowed way too many people into this country and it’s time we start worrying about those that are here rather than those coming in.

          • jonavark

            Agreed.. Although I don’t think Al Franken would agree with you.

          • scorpioman

            The shrub should have secured our borders when the influx was happening. He allowed aliens to steal jobs right out from under our noses.

          • jonavark

            Oh.. so now illegal aliens are stealing jobs right out from under our noses.. what happened to your “brown people will prevail” bullcrap?

            Consistency is difficult for the mentally deranged.

        • georgiapeach

          I have got to tell you, I have been what seemed so deep in the hole, I could not see daylight. Health care, etc. wasn’t even on my radar….feeding my children was. I know all about how the pawn shop works, I’ve lived without cable and cellphones. I was one of the working poor, but I never went to the govt. In my mind, my kids were mine to feed, house and cloth. I do admit my parents did help some but, I was a whiner too. I could always think of an excuse but when it came down to it, my situation was MY fault. Nobody else’s. Once I quit looking for excuses, my life changed….everything improved, those tough times got better and when I did hit a bump, it was not earth shattering because I knew I was strong and things would get better.

          I was laid off two weeks ago…I allowed my self 1 hr. for a pity party, then hit the phones and got the resume tuned up. Unemployment didn’t even cross my mind. I start a new job this week.

          To me the more you take the less freedom you have.

          • PolyIndependent

            I had to use foodstamps for a few months once, and it doesn’t bother me a bit. Most of my family works construction and uses unemployment during the winter months until work picks back up. These are systems we pay into for a reason. Using the safety nets we pay for is nothing to be ashamed of. Using (and abusing) them WITHOUT paying for them is what people should be ashamed up.

          • thephranc

            Your family is taking more than they are putting in. It’s unscrupulous. That is abuse of the system. Are they so lazy they can’t find another seasonal job? I can why you are the scum bag you are. It looks like fraud runs in the family. Yours being the intellectual kind.

          • jonavark

            Ha.. Georgia.. I’m right there with you. Twenty years ago when my kids were very young I found myself standing in the unemployment line. I looked around and walked out vowing never to give in to that again. I’ve been self employed most of my life and during the hard times I go without .. sometimes the fridge is empty.

            I tell myself it is my own fault and carry on. Makes the times I do have a lot of work and income is good feel that much better.

            In fact.. I don’t know why this is, but I enjoy the challenge of having nothing sometimes.

          • PolyIndependent

            thephranc

            Your family is taking more than they are putting in. It’s unscrupulous. That is abuse of the system. Are they so lazy they can’t find another seasonal job? I can why you are the scum bag you are. It looks like fraud runs in the family. Yours being the intellectual kind.

            ——————

            Wow, you get dumber by the day huh? Do you even have any concept of how unemployment works? And you go tell every construction worker that they’re “lazy” for using unemployment. If you’ve ever worked a real job in your life, you’d know that’s how it goes because it’s seasonal employment. You don’t build houses in December. So, you pay into unemployment during the rest of the year so that you can buy yourself a few months.

          • georgiapeach

            Construction is a bad comeback for me, my Dad worked it and so does my husband. In winters when there was no work my dad drove a truck or drove a cab. My husband has been with the same company for 16 yrs. At one point they had 54 carpenters on payroll, 2 yrs. ago work came to a standstill. My husband had a choice, he could go on unemployment or rotate the jobs, which meant sitting days at home. He chose to keep the job, even though there were weeks that paid less than unemployment. He could not fathom giving up a job, we cut back and rode it out, work has picked up.

            Even my own son, who I about begged to go to college, could not stand the fact that even though he was 19 I still had to help pay his bills. He ended up dropping out and joining the Army just so he could be independent.

          • PolyIndependent

            georgiapeach

            Construction is a bad comeback for me, my Dad worked it and so does my husband. In winters when there was no work my dad drove a truck or drove a cab. My husband has been with the same company for 16 yrs. At one point they had 54 carpenters on payroll, 2 yrs. ago work came to a standstill. My husband had a choice, he could go on unemployment or rotate the jobs, which meant sitting days at home. He chose to keep the job, even though there were weeks that paid less than unemployment. He could not fathom giving up a job, we cut back and rode it out, work has picked up.

            Even my own son, who I about begged to go to college, could not stand the fact that even though he was 19 I still had to help pay his bills. He ended up dropping out and joining the Army just so he could be independent.

            ———————

            When you’re making $30-40/hour, unemployment is necessary. An $8/hour job does not pay the bills, and you’ve paid in significant money throughout the year. Again, unemployment is like SS, you pay into it, you’re getting your money back. Only time I ever went on foodstamps was while waiting for the Army. I had a 6 month stand by until going active duty and the economy was a mess. I did day labor under the table to used $300/month in foodstamps to get by until I went active. But I’ve paid taxes for decades, so I have no problem taking $1000 back out when I needed to.

          • georgiapeach

            We went from just under $100,000 per year to less than $50,000, unemployment would not cut it for us. Just because the government takes it from me, does not mean I feel like it is owed me. We will tough it out. Some have no problem taking, we won’t take it. Within the next month we will have our freezers packed with venison and I have the ability to grow enough veggies to feed my family and friends. Unemployment and food stamps, no, personally, I could not do it.

            BTW, between our situation and having many friends in the trades, we take care of each other. When things are good, I do the buy one/get one with friends, they don’t ask, I just drop the food off. Once our freezers are full, my boys hunt and give the meat to the local churches and Hunters for the Hungry which feeds the homeless. Yes, I am an evil selfish conservative.

          • thephranc

            Polytwat

            I own 2 small businesses (both construction) so I know full well how unemployment works. I have the pay tables because I have to actually pay the unemployment taxes. A person making $400 a week pays $9 a month in unemployment. Hardly paying in significant money during the year even when extrapolated to 4 times that.

            You family is lazy if they sit on their a55es and collect unemployment every winter instead of going out and hustling to make a living. And no construction is not seasonal any competent and responsible construction worker can find inside jobs during the winter. And yes you can build during the winter, even outside.

            So once again you call me dumb but fail at basic knowledge. You are chump from a family of no good bums who are to damn lazy to hustle and instead sit back and live of the work of others because no matter how you slice it no one puts into unemployment as much as they take out.

          • The_anniebanannie

            Thephranc – I don’t know where you’re at and perhaps its different by states, but all unemployment is paid by employers here. There is never a deduction out of paychecks for unemployment.

          • The_anniebanannie

            Polyester, you don’t know what you’re talking about…big surprise. No employee ” paid in significant money throughout the year” into unemployment insurance. That’s paid by the employer and based on how many employees have drawn from that insurance over the past 5 quarters.

          • The_anniebanannie

            Who pays for unemployment insurance benefits?
            Employers pay 100% of all benefits paid to claimants.

            http://www.unemploymentclaims.com/sys-faq.asp?SiteID=34283&PageID=122978#6

        • MerryJ1

          Off-point, but kind of funny: The Town of Cicero (IL) had a policy of requiring work from recipients of Town aid. They would be assigned to various Town facilities for light cleaning or janitorial tasks, and this included the public library; one woman was tasked with dusting books and shelves, and she set about her assignment with gusto. In attempting to improve the appearance of the library book shelves, she went shelf-by-shelf, removing all the books and replacing them in a prettier-looking order – by size.

          I have to admit, it did look nice.

      • The_anniebanannie

        jonavark

        but lemme guess.. you like the anchor baby law.. ”

        no, he just believes in mandatory abortions

    • thephranc

      Wall Street gave a little over 60% of its money to dems.

  • Brian Brawdy

    Election day has a message for anyone listening. How many will hear what the voters are truly saying? Punishing Politicians for Picking Cohorts over Constituents http://t.co/o8fKoc9

  • gringott

    Stephen Hayes on Fox All-Stars about a week ago predicted 65 seats with a straight face, The Hammer predicted 50 to 55, A.P. My_Dad_Got_Me_My_Job predicted under 50. It looks like Stephen Haynes may be conservative in predictions as well as politics.