Politics

The wave’s momentum, the Palin effect, and Obama’s rationale for defeat

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Jon Ward
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      Jon Ward

      Jon Ward covers the White House and national politics for The Daily Caller. He covered the last two years of George W. Bush's presidency and the first year of Barack Obama's presidency for The Washington Times. Prior to moving to national politics, Jon worked for the Times' city desk and bureaus in Virginia and Maryland, covering local news and politics, including the D.C. sniper shootings and subsequent trial, before moving to state politics in Maryland. He and his wife have two children and live on Capitol Hill. || <a href="mailto:jw@dailycaller.com">Email Jon</a>

Finally, it’s time to vote. But there’s a full day left to wait for results. In the meantime, here are three dominant political themes for the days ahead.

One, the Republican wave gained serious momentum over the last three days and could be a tsunami. Two, the divisions within the Republican Party may be just a prelude to what happens starting this week. And three, President Obama appears ready to offer up the same explanation he’s given after past setbacks: voters don’t understand what he’s doing and that’s why they don’t like it.

The Wave is getting bigger by the hour

A series of data points moved the needle back closer to panic for Senate Democrats over the weekend and through Monday. Indicators in virtually every close race for Democratic-held seats – Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania – moved those contests toward the Republican. And in Washington, last minute polls made clear that Sen. Patty Murray will have to sweat it out Tuesday night, possibly keeping the entire nation waiting to see who controls the Senate. The two remaining wild cards are West Virginia and Alaska. Polls tightened in the Mountaineer state, and Republican Joe Miller got a much-needed dose of good news Monday in the form of a Public Policy Polling survey that showed him with 37 points to 30 points for both Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Democrat Scott McAdams.

It seemed over the weekend as if a Senate takeover for Republicans was out of the question. But on Election Day, the energy is going to the right in a big way and no one knows how far that goes. That said, polls close in West Virginia at 7:30 p.m. Eastern and that will tell us a lot. If Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin can’t pull that race out despite holding a few point-edge in polls (Nate Silver of the New York Times gives him an 88 percent chance of winning), it’s going to be a very long night for Democrats.

In the House, estimates of how far above 39 seats the Republican pickup would go have been climbing as well. Last week it was 50 to 60 seats. Over the weekend prognosticators began to mention the 70-seat threshold. The Cook Political Report’s last analysis showed 25 guaranteed GOP pickups, with an additional 49 Democratic-held seats in the tossup category. Democrats can win half the tossups and still see Republicans gain 50 seats.

One of the first races to look for is at 6 p.m., when the first polls of the day close in Indiana and Kentucky. If Rep. Joe Donnelly, the incumbent Democrat in Indiana’s 2nd district, can’t defeat Republican challenger Jackie Walorski, that might be the first sign that GOP gains are going to be much higher than 50 seats. If Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly in Virginia’s 11th district and Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher in Virginia’s 9th district get knocked out when polls there close at 7 p.m., that will be the second sign of an epic wave.

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  • Sonny119

    Anyone who denies the impact that Gov. Sarah Palin, and the Tea Party Movement Folks, had on this Mid-Term Election to take the back Congress, is Delusional.!!
    Gov. Palin, and the Tea Party Folks / American People, are a Powerful Political Force, that will counter, and push back, the radical far leftwing Liberal, George Soros Funded, Obamacrat Political Corrupt Machinery, and Agenda, and who will put and end to Obama on 6 Nov. 2012.!!
    -
    Round 2 starts today. The 2012 Presidential campaign has officially started, and if you think the Obamacrats, as well as the Republicans, were scared, when they got Booted out of office / power, on 2 Nov., they, haven’t seen nothing yet, as they will be absolutely terrified of the American Tea Party Folks, and the Independents, as we will go against all of them, and all of their Corrupt Liberal Facist George Soros Funding, and their Corrupt Facist Liberal Socialist Marxist Obamacrat’s, in Power to end their Careers of Corruption and Destruction, forever.!!!!
    Make No Mistake about it America, 6 Nov. 2012, will be the Battle Royal, of all Political Battles, for the Return of the very Heart and Soul of the Nation’s Freedom, Liberty, and Democracy itself, from Obama, and all his Corrupt Obamacrat Cronies, in Washington DC, as this will be their Last Stand, on 6 Nov. 2012.!!!!! In the words of Patrick Henry, We have only just begun to Fight.!!!!

  • http://apollospaeks.townhall.com apollospeaks

    ARIANNA HUFFINGTON’S LAMENT

    Arianna Huffington laments that the big message of yesterday’s election is that “the public has lost faith in government.” That is almost correct. What they’ve lost faith in is Big Government Liberalism, now called Obamunism: the big lie that government is the answer to man’s quest for happiness and a rich, productive and meaningful life. Arianna also laments that Republicans who won big last night have no new ideas. That is true insofar as the GOP represents the old, wise, time tested ideas of the Founders: God gave man life and liberty to pursue happiness; and the purpose of government is to protect life and liberty so that man can achieve his dreams. That government is the dream maker for human beings is the lie, the big lie, the proven lie that leads to tyranny, bankruptcy, dehumanization and misery as we’ve seen throughout history and is happening today. It is belief in this lie, this utopian concept of government, that America is losing its faith and that Obama and the Dems are radically destroying.

    Sooner or later Arianna will lament that when she changed from Right to Left she joined the wrong side of history. Again I say:

    The Age of Liberalism is over,
    It’s finished with and done.
    And a new and glorious chapter
    In our country’s heroic history
    Is about to begin.

    Click my name for my NUMBER ONE Townhall blog