Pawlenty and Trump on the rise, Gingrich slipping

In the second edition of The Daily Caller/ConservativeHome GOP 2012 Presidential tracking poll, Tim Pawlenty and Donald Trump are on the rise, while Newt Gingrich appears to be slipping.

This time, respondents were asked a new question: who are you most likely to vote for? Chris Christie and Mitt Romney come out ahead on this with 14 and 13 percent of the vote, respectively. Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich form the second tier, taking 11 percent of the vote each. Tim Pawlenty starts off rather well in this category, taking 7 percent of the vote, as does Donald Trump.

Both Trump and Pawlenty saw serious gains since the last poll. Pawlenty jumped five percentage points in the most likely to win category, placing him third place, with 11 percent of the vote, behind Romney and Christie. He also saw significant gains in likeability, gaining 4 percentage points. Since the last poll, Pawlenty announced the formation of an exploratory committee, and his gains are likely attributable to that roll out, which got him substantial media attention and brought him into the public eye as a serious candidate.

Voters appear to still be unsure about Pawlenty when it comes to the specifics. He continues to poll very low numbers as the candidate who would do the best at controlling government spending and the candidate would be best at handling the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Trump has also been the subject of a lot of media attention lately, having rolled out what many are calling a birther strategy, in which he has repeatedly questioned the existence of President Obama’s birth certificate, or questioned the information contained on said document. This seems to have gotten him some traction – a PPP poll released Tuesday found him to be the only candidate able to get within striking distance of Romney in the early primary state of New Hampshire.

In our tracking poll, Trump posted gains in every single category. He is now the candidate whom a plurality of voters believes would do the best job on the economy, edging out Christie as well as Romney. He gets 12 percent of the vote as the candidate who would do the best job controlling Washington spending – having gained 3 percent of the vote, which puts him ahead of every candidate except for Christie.

In the last poll, we noted that there is a disparity between who respondents believe will do the best job on the economy and who will do the best job reining in government spending. Voters believe Trump and Romney would do a good job handling the economy, but fewer think they would do the best job controlling spending. The pattern is reversed for Bachmann, Palin, Ron Paul, and Gingrich – who are also seen by respondents as the most conservative candidates. Trump seems to be moving toward breaking this pattern. Though more people have confidence in his ability to handle the economy – 17 percent, compared to 12 percent who believe he would do the best job at reining in spending – he is now a top tier candidate in both of those metrics.

Gingrich, on the other hand, seems to be slipping. His percentage of the vote dropped in every single category. Gingrich has had a rough go of it in the past couple weeks, making a series of gaffes like changing his position on Libya twice and explaining that he was unfaithful to his first two wives because he was so patriotic. Chris Cillizza gave him the Worst Week in Washington for last week. Indeed, Gingrich’s the share of voters who called Gingrich the best candidate on foreign policy dropped by three percent.

  • recovered dem

    Would someone please explain why everyone thinks Cristie is so great? Frankly, he social liberalism is a red flag to me.

    • gatortarian

      Because we are way to far in the hole to worry about social issues at this point. Christie has proven he can and will cut spending.

      • recovered dem

        I don’t think I clearly stated what I meant. When I mentioned social issues I was thinking about the financial burden of all the illegals that Obama wants to make citizens, which Christie is also in favor of as well.

    • rhysz

      he has his moments

  • maggie8

    I agree

  • upnorth

    I’m tire of the median the outlet included trying to manipulate who gets the nomination. All the major candidates are GOP goodolboys! The Chris Christie is thrown is he will slant the numbers by gather all the Tparty voter. I would love it if Chris Christie would run, BUT HE’S NOT!

    Give us a real article by limiting it to real candidates! How about one that just includes those that have an exploratory committees, announced a williness, or have not completely rejected the concept of a run.

  • votersofny

    Oh yeah, Trump. I will vote for him if he runs. Just look at what we’ve had running this country for the last 20 years. Clinton, Bush and Obozo. How we aren’t a 3rd world country by now is amazing with those 3, especially this last one, Obozo.

    Trump makes those 3 look like retards. He’s not going to be apologizing for us all over the globe. He’s going to be drilling for oil and get out from under other country’s thumbs. He’ll cut spending in a heartbeat.

    Trump will restore this country to the proud one we used to have before Obozo took over.

    Hey, you can’t possibly do worse than the last trio we had, so give it a try. If Obozo gets 4 more years, we’re done. They’ll be rioting in the street, just like the Middle East. That’s what Obozo and his commie friends are hoping for. Stop them.

  • EWRoss

    This is one way to track the Republican candidates for president. Here’s another:


    • upnorth

      Nice article, but I don’t agree with it entirely. Mostly the VP portion. But it is better written than this article by the DC caller. Drives me nuts when we insist on including candidates that have said they are not running, Chris Christie, it scues the numbers and is usually used to get a certain response. I think it is used here to detract from the nontraditional Republican. Chris Christie would detract from Bachmann and other Tparty candidates.

  • votersofny

    Gingrich doesn’t stand a chance. Is he stupid? Doesn’t he realize that all of his many scandals are going to be all over the lamestrean media as soon as he announces? What a dope.

    Here’s a sample. Did you know that he was the one who caused the last government shutdown in 1995 when Clinton was ruining, i mean running, this country? Do you know why he did it? He did it because Clinton made him and Dole ride in the back of the bus, I mean Air Force One.

    Then the dope announces it to a room full of reporters two days later. That’s why you haven’t heard about him for 15 years. He thinks people are going to forget that?

    There’s lots more of that as soon as he announces. What a moron.

  • Pingback: NBC poll: Donald Trump tied for second place – The State Column | The Trump Doctrine

  • mapletree

    Newt has been out of sight for too many years and most young people have never heard of him. He has some great ideas and he’s intelligent, but I don’t think he has a chance of winning. Yes, I would like to see him in a cabinet or similar position.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Donald-Dweebo/1579728276 Donald Dweebo


    • rhysz

      you want someone who was Fed board governor???

  • Pingback: Pawlenty and Trump on the rise, Gingrich slipping – Daily Caller | The Trump Doctrine