What does the market know?

Here is that chart comparing the stock of New GM with the Dow. I sense a downward slope (for GM). What does the market know that Jonathan Cohn doesn’t. Maybe this. (Sample: ““How many large-cap IPOs have you bought over the last six months in which the issuer already missed initial expectations by 30% and were hit with senior management turnover?” ) …

Update: Megan McArdle adds up the costs of the bailout, and they come to $250,000 for each of GM’s 75,000 hourly workers. Of course there are lots of non-GM workers at suppliers, dealers, etc. whose jobs would also be lost if GM went under. That’s one reason I tended to favor the bailout. But Obama could have driven a much harder bargain with the UAW–one that would have given GM a better shot at surviving and served as a deterrent to future union leaders who might want to gamble with their employer’s solvency. Instead, the union has been rewarded for helping bankrupt a “too big to fail” concern. Bad precedent, whatever happens. And it’s hard not to be annoyed by the media-assisted hype directed at investors, plus the premature victory declarations from commentators like Cohn and Dionne. GM is still an iffy proposition, long term, as a North American operation. It has a lot of competitors, most of whom don’t have to destroy their corporate culture or deal with the UAW. … Even if it survives, as McArdle notes, taxpayer losses are likely to total 1-2 Rattner Units. (1 Rattner Unit = $11 billion). ….