Romney would be a better candidate than Huckabee or half of the other Republican candidates, but I don’t think Romney is a guaranteed lock for 2012. The biggest elephant in the room remains if Sarah Palin enters the race or not. She puts butts in seats. She energizes the Tea party, which will be key. She’s improving among independents and at this point, has the second highest favorables among the GOP field. She is, at the same time, the exact ideological opposite of Obama, yet can guarantee grassroots intensity among conservatives and right-leaning independents of the kind not seen in a generation. If Sarah steps into the game, the oxygen leaves everyone else’s tents.