The Daily Caller

The Daily Caller

Bachmann can win by losing

Michele Bachmann isn’t going to be the Republican nominee for president this cycle, but that doesn’t mean her candidacy won’t have merit or an impact on who ultimately wins the nomination.

A presidential run for the Minnesota Congresswoman-turned-Tea-Party-standard-bearer won’t be without its fair share of false starts or false steps. But as long as her candidacy doesn’t completely implode, her very presence in the Republican field creates dangers for the more established candidates regardless of whether she wins or loses.

Let’s assume for a minute that she runs but doesn’t win.

At some point, whoever is left standing will want the support of her and the army of grassroots supporters she commands.

That means direct attacks on her run the risk of alienating a base of people the eventual primary winner will need.

But what if she does run to win?

If the field is Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Huntsman, Santorum, Paul and Cain — no Mitch Daniels and no Sarah Palin — there’s a good base of primary voters who, not feeling overly enthusiastic about any one nominee, might be inclined to channel their energy and support toward Bachmann.

Can you imagine what the response would be if Palin opted not to run and instead endorsed Bachmann?

While the values voters left behind due to Mike Huckabee’s decision to sit the Republican primary out will splinter between Pawlenty, Santorum and Huntsman, Bachmann can also viably appeal to a number of them. A marriage between Palin’s followers and just some of Huckabee’s supporters could be a potent force in the early contests.

To impact the race, Bachmann doesn’t need to win in any of the early contests in New Hampshire, Iowa or South Carolina; she just needs to finish in the top three.

Looking back at 2008, the top three finishers in New Hampshire received 37%, 32% and 11% respectively. In Iowa: 34%, 25% and 13%. South Carolina: 33%, 29% and 15%.

Essentially, garnering at least 15% of the vote is enough to finish third in the early contests. Given that, it really isn’t that farfetched to imagine the only candidate in the primary with the full support of the Tea Party movement receiving at least 15% of the vote in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina.

If Bachmann were to be in the top three early on, what does it say about the other four or five guys who don’t? Can they make a credible case to stay in the race? You can’t really make the case for Bachmann to get out if she’s consistently outperforming more “traditional” candidates.

She may not be able to win the whole thing, but she sure can ensure that some people don’t either.

There are many reasons why Michele Bachmann won’t be the Republican nominee, but if she so chooses, she can leave an indelible impact on the GOP primary field.

Kurt Bardella is the current Communications Director for The Daily Caller and is a former Congressional Republican spokesman.

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  • tommiec

    To the writer of this article:

    What bizarro world do you live in? Do you ever come in contact with the actual people? Michele Bachmann is the punch line for every TV comedy show in America, and deservedly so.

    If they were alive today I can see Ronald Reagan and William Buckley commenting on her, ‘That Bachmann has real potential’…

    yeah, sure!!!

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  • J Baustian

    With Huckabee out and Palin likely to stay out, Michele Bachmann may become the instant favorite to win the Iowa caucus.

    By the South Carolina primary, endorsements from Sarah Palin and Governor Nicki Haley could propel Bachmann to a win there too.

    Looking at other states, one can assume that Romney will be strong in New Hampshire and Mitch Daniels will be solid everywhere. But I can’t think of a state that Pawlenty can win, or even come in a close second.

  • Delmarjackson

    Bachman has something no one else has, Bachman has the best immigration voting record of any candidadte as graded by Numbersusa.

    people that get all their news from the MSM and live inside the beltway or in NYC or LA think immigration is a second tier issue at best. These people are delusional.
    In the flyover country, away from the democrat liberal and blue blood rino Republican hotbeds, Immigration is KING.

    People were mad as hell in 2010, tired of being smeared as racist,xenophobe,bigot,nativist and dummies just because they wanted less legal immigration and zero illegal immigration, and to have our laws enforced.

    In 2012 they will still be mad, but looking for payback to the democrats that want to import a new class of permanent Democrat voter and republicans that want cheap compliant labor for their ruling class masters.

    I am a democrat, have voted for carter and Gore and got involved with immigration issue over the environmemt. Immigration opened my eyes, it has opened a lot of American’s eyes to our weasels in washington.
    Bachman is looking better all the time.

  • elpolacko

    how much influence she has is debatable…the problem is that she’s not particularly bright and she’s a bit of a loon. the fact that her name is bandied about as a candidate/kingmaker reveals the paucity of talent in the GOP. it appears that we are doomed to another term of barack…ugh.