Rick Perry and the GOP’s ‘Texas option’

Charisma. Also not to be underestimated is Perry’s Alpha-male “presence” and his gruff Texas-rancher demeanor, which gives him the potential to outshine — or at least out-macho — the rest of the GOP field. Gingrich may be brainier, Pawlenty more articulate, Bachmann feistier, and Huntsman and Romney more telegenic, but none projects Perry’s stolid cowboy toughness and grit. Perry is already gone head-to-toe with Obama on border issues, and despite his three terms, and long involvement in politics, he retains his status as a Washington “outsider.” We’ve already seen — twice — how the Southern “Bubba” factor can play nationally, especially with Reagan Democrats.

And then there’s the “Bush” factor itself. Though Perry, like Bush, is a protégé of Karl Rove, he’s broken with the Bush circle, especially after they backed his GOP primary opponent, Kay Bailey Hutchison. Perry cleverly pivoted, and won the endorsement of Sarah Palin, which helped him defeat Hutchison, before going on to defeat the Democratic mayor of Houston, Bill White, by double digits. And despite Palin’s support, Perry bested White 59-36 percent among independents, a clear sign of his enormous crossover appeal.

Palin’s support could provide Perry with an important conservative funding stream, while bolstering his outsider image. But Perry as the “anti-Bush” also has the potential to weaken the expected 2012 Obama narrative, which is certain to portray any GOP nominee as an heir to Bush tax policies and to the Bush presidency generally. The more Perry steers clear of any symbolic or practical association with the “Bushies,” the more credibility he will retain with the Tea Party while continuing to project a governing style and track record that can woo independents who are disenchanted with Obama but in no mood to relive the policies of his predecessor.

Of course, there’s a distinct irony here. The Perry road to the GOP nomination — a late draft by a deadlocked and under-performing party in need of a “dark horse” — resembles nothing less than the strategy that catapulted George W. Bush to the nomination in 2000. Bush never actively sought the nomination either, which allowed him to project an image of genial diffidence that helped endear him to Republicans. Perry, if he runs, is likely to position himself as a Bush-like compassionate Christian conservative who simply responded to his party’s “call to serve.”

But will it happen? That probably depends on how fragmented the current GOP field remains after the Iowa straw poll in August. With Daniels out, some GOP establishment figures, including veterans of John McCain’s 2008 campaign, and McCain himself, are plainly hoping that the pro-life Huntsman, a fiscal hawk with a stellar conservative governing record in Utah and serious foreign policy chops, can somehow steal the grassroots thunder of Bachmann and Pawlenty while wooing establishment funders still leery of investing in Romney’s already divisive candidacy.

But if Huntsman fails to gain traction, and Bachmann, Pawlenty and even Herman Cain surge in the Iowa straw poll in August, the GOP field is likely to head into the fall with no clear frontrunner, and with the different candidates dividing and even subdividing key party constituencies, and holding forth in distinct geographic regions — Romney in the Northeast and parts of the West, Huntsman in parts of the South, and the most insurgent Tea Party forces dominating the Midwest and other parts of the South. At that point, the “Draft Perry” movement is likely to gain additional steam.

Could blockbuster Texas, home of the Alamo, become the scene of another GOP “last stand”?

Stewart J. Lawrence is a Washington, D.C.-based public policy analyst who writes frequently on immigration and Latino affairs. He is also founder and managing director of Puentes & Associates, Inc., a bilingual survey research and communications firm.