NY-26: I Told You So!

I had two items prepared for today’s Congressional race in NY-26:

a) Ha, ha, ha–Jonathan Chait was wrong! Before the vote, he said Kathy Hochul’s “likely” victory meant that “the pendulum has swung back” toward the Dems and “[t]he political landscape that produced the Republican sweep of 2010 is gone.” Boy does he look foolish now.

b) Ha, ha, ha–I told you so! Ryan’s Medicare plan is political suicide, for good reason. Maybe now the GOPs will wise up and actually try to win in 2012. Chris Lee died for their sins. Or at least he didn’t get a date.

I guess I’ll go with (b).

  • cnlaver

    Check your math again, Mickey. The Republican lost because she wasn’t conservative enough for 9% of the voters. Conservative + Republican = 51%. That’s what most of the rest of us call a “majority.”

  • whatthedickens

    The Democrat received 47% of the vote after using all the Mediscare demagoguery at her party’s command. Congratulations are in order. Corwin lost, but the evidence that the Ryan budget plan with its Medicare reform is “political suicide” is not yet completely in. Having passed the Ryan budget, the GOP House members will face a choice: run away from it in the vain hope of avoiding the suicide Mickey Kaus predicts or embracing the reality that they are in fact leading the country toward fiscal sanity. Should they embrace it, then they can get off their butts and learn how to defend the plan as well as Ryan does and, in addition, learn how to fight the fire with ads that show the Dems plan for saving Medicare: Which is what exactly? Deny that it is headed for bankruptcy? Let Medicare decisions be decided by 15 un-elected bureaucratic “experts” to prevent such a bankruptcy? If proposing the status quo is a winner in 2012, perhaps the Dems are on to something. But if the status quo is going to be a winner next year then it is clear 2010 was a mirage. If the GOP continues to follow Ryan’s lead, what seems like “political suicide” now for Kaus could very well turn into political wisdom in effect.

    • wellbasically

      If the public plan will be bankrupt, then any private plan will be bankrupt too. Both depend on the productivity of workers to support old people with productive investments, either by taxing their wages or drawing money from private accounts.

      Austerity Republicans never win. Growth Republicans win. The Republican electorate unfortunately is focused on budget cuts, so the solution will have to come from someone who appeals to Independents.

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  • Random Dude

    Oh Mickey, Mickey, Mickey.

    Unfortunately reality doesn’t give a damn about what you or other Democrats find politically attractive. The Soviet Union and the Communist Party didn’t collapse because of a messaging problem.

    Democrats’ big mistake is believing that all they need to do is win the political “narrative.” But this system will be bankrupt within a decade easily. Social Security and Medicare’s projected bankruptcy dates have moved up 30 years in last 5.

    The welfare state has run out of other people’s money (including future generations’), and now the vast majority of spoiled, entitled Americans who paid less than 50% of what they’re receiving in handouts have to pay the piper. Like you’ve said previously, Democrats are the party of government, and your party will collapse along with the monster you’ve all created.

  • iowaclass

    Somehow, the new GOP generation deluded itself into thinking it could launch a
    frontal attack on the American Welfare State that was decoupled from ancient,
    racially-invidious stereotypes of a lazy, fecund, and criminal underclass.


    The first rule of politics is the all-important distinction between “us” and
    “them.” Grandma and Grandpa in a Medicaid nursing home are one of us, while
    single moms on food stamps are part of “them.” Denigrate and assault the latter
    to your heart’s content, but trifle with the former at your peril.

  • DaveT3000

    Chait is like the rich man’s E.J. Dionne

    What’s good for General Motors is good for the emerging majority. Also Obama needs to stop governing in prose (see Shelby Steele in the Wall St J)

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  • Mickey Kaus

    Boys, boys, no need to fight! Put a means-test on Medicare and you can save the program and prevent its near-term bankruptcy.

    • Apolitical Blues

      I’m not so sure about the means testing. Why should someone who worked there ass off their whole life to build a nest egg, and paid their medicare contributions, have to get wiped out by a catastrophic illness at the end when other people don’t? Frankly, as someone lucky* enough to be in the upper 1% at tax time, I’m more amenable to means testing Social Security; at least I can anticipate that and have money put aside for retirement. Even for someone with a few million dollars put away, medical expenses can wipe you out pretty quickly. Why should the whole family have to be wiped out financially?

      * And by lucky I mean working 60-70 weeks for the past 25 years.

  • stephenkaus

    The GOP’s problem is that their medicare plan revealed their true contempt for the middle class, let alone the poor.

    • torispelling

      Without the ‘doc fix’ that’s never been passed, Medicare runs out of money in 8 years. The CBO report that mentioned 2024 assumes [as told to them by Congress] that a 30% ‘doc fix’ in cuts to hospitals, doctors, et al, is passed next year.

      It’s the lying Democrats who have nothing but contempt for the poor AND middle class as their favored Union cronies/donators get magic ‘waivers’ from being forced into a system that the CBO assures us, in great detail, will be bankrupt less than two terms from now