op-ed

$100,000 says Palin isn’t elected president in 2012

Palin’s approval numbers are continually all over the place because, thanks to the fact that she is so polarizing, they fluctuate dramatically based on the nature of the sample. However, there has never been a legitimate poll where Palin is even in real striking distance of Obama head-to-head. And it is critical to point out that since we are not yet in a general election and Palin has been safely ensconced inside the cuddle of Fox News, the big guns have not been fired on her by an Obama team (and mainstream media) that lusts after the chance to run against her.

For instance, other than when I brought it up, when was the last time you heard much negative talk about the details and motivation of her resignation? In a general election, that currently ignored elephant in the corner of the room would enter the spotlight. Frankly, other than MSNBC, the media has largely been rather gentle towards Palin as of late and given her potential run far more attention than it deserves because they so badly need her ratings-friendly story as part of the campaign narrative.

As for fixing the resignation problem, I am shocked that someone as smart as John really believes that an overtly pro-Palin documentary that is scheduled to run in just ten theaters in the dead of summer, doesn’t even have Palin in it, and which will be seen only by people who are already Palin fans will have any impact whatsoever on how the people who determine who wins presidential elections (the largely uninformed) would view an act they will inevitably, with the media’s help, see as quitting her job in order to become a rich celebrity. While I wish the film well, clearly unless it somehow gets aired on national television it will not influence a general election or even a presidential primary.

Nolte also cites Palin’s many great qualities and Obama’s new vulnerability (I totally agree with both of these points) as further proof that I am wrong, when in actuality those points bolster my conclusion. Palin is already known by everyone, has shown her very best to us conservatives, and without holding an office has no real way to augment her resume/narrative, especially since she is unwilling to do interviews with liberal media members. Meanwhile, the fact that the economy is clearly stalling makes it even more imperative than ever that we not squander the golden opportunity to slay the Obama dragon by nominating a white knight who may look great on the horse but who is missing any armor over her vital organs.

Of course I am very cynical about any “conservative” media member giving an opinion on Palin’s electability because of the inherent conflict of commercial interest in not wanting to offend Palin’s passionate supporters. Interestingly, Nolte’s boss Breitbart and his buddy Ann Coulter have come up with a brilliant (gutless? insincere?) way of navigating this minefield by ridiculously claiming that Palin is too good for the office of the presidency. Without getting into the details at this time, based on personal knowledge I can assure you that this is not what Breitbart really believes about her.

But regardless, to Nolte and all other commentators who claim I am wrong about Palin’s chances in 2012, I simply ask you to put your money where your mouth is. I am officially offering a $1,000 bet, at incredible 100-1 odds, that Palin will not be inaugurated president of the United States in January of 2013. This unbelievable $100,000 offer (along with details as to how I would pay in full with the money I had reserved for the charity offer that Keith Olbermann dodged) is available to the first prominent conservative who takes me up on it.

If I am so wrong, this is the deal of a lifetime, right? A no-brainer even. So why am I so convinced that no one will even take me up on it or that hardly any of my critics will see the obvious significance when they don’t?

John Ziegler is currently a documentary filmmaker who most recently released a movie on the 2008 election called, “Media Malpractice… How Obama Got Elected and Palin Was Targeted.” He has also been in radio talk show host in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Louisville and Nashville. Ziegler has written two books and has appeared live on numerous national television shows including the Today Show, The View, Fox News Channel, CNN and MSNBC.