Will Elizabeth Warren enter the race to unseat Republican Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts? According to Democratic insiders in the Bay State, it remains a mystery.
Rumors began swirling in May that Massachusetts Democrats were trying to persuade the Harvard law professor and architect of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to run for Senate in 2012. Such rumors came on the heels of a “Draft Elizabeth” campaign spearheaded by the liberal-leaning blog Daily Kos months earlier. (Did Elizabeth Warren lie to Congress?)
It is now well acknowledged that there is at least a small coalition backing a Warren candidacy, but Democratic Party insiders are still far from clear whether she will enter the race.
One Democrat insider in Massachusetts told The Daily Caller that Warren has been making calls to fundraisers throughout the state, indicating the Harvard professor is at least considering a run.
But Scott Ferson, founder of Liberty Square Group and former press secretary for the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, told TheDC he hasn’t seen any evidence of a possible campaign. “She isn’t talking to operatives up here as far as I know,” said Ferson. “[She] isn’t doing the types of things that one would need to put a campaign team together.”
Warren would certainly bring a certain amount of celebrity to the race should she choose to run — a point not lost on state Democrats.
While one insider was hesitant to say there is a dissatisfaction with the current field of Democratic candidates, according to the insider there “is a hunger out there for the ‘A-list’ type.”
Judy Meredith, executive director of the Public Policy Institute, also told TheDC that those in the current field of Democratic candidates “are all smart and fairly savvy, but lack [money] and gravitas.”
So far, at least four candidate are officially in the race: environmental activist and Episcopal priest Bob Massie, Newton Mayor Setti Warren, entrepreneur Alan Khazei, and state Rep. Tom Conroy.
“As for me, I’ve been interested in the possibility of an Elizabeth Warren candidacy for months — since long before the current field took shape,” David Kravitz, co-founder of the widely-read political blog BlueMassGroup, told TheDC. “That’s not to take anything away from the current field; it’s just saying that, on the merits, she seems like a great candidate, and I’m all for more great candidates entering the race.”
Kravitz also pointed out that the state Democratic chair has publicly said he is not recruiting Warren to run.
One barrier for Warren or any other potential candidate could be whether Brown’s incumbent status and financial support will ensure his re-election. A poll released this past spring showed Brown at an approval rating of 73 percent among Massachusetts voters.
“I think at this point I’d put it at 50/50,” said Ferson, on the chances of Brown losing his seat. “[Brown is] still personally popular, votes down the middle, but it’s a tough state for a Republican.”
Meredith went even further when talking about Brown’s possible vulnerabilities, saying that he is a politician who could “fall in deep, cold water any day with a false move, and careless remark, and dumb policy move.”
“Any of the current Democratic candidates could capture the moment and all of a sudden look senatorial,” she added.
Massachusetts has a complicated election process. According to the Democrat insider, Warren would need to have an operation in place by February 2012 should she choose to run, though most candidates will be announced by late summer.
Warren currently serves as a special advisor to the president and the CFPB in Washington. If President Obama nominates her to be the agency’s first director, she is expected to face a tough confirmation battle with Senate Republicans.