The Daily Caller

The Daily Caller

Mitt Romney’s effortless lead in Iowa

It’s an accepted truth in presidential politics that the Iowa caucus has the power to make or break any campaign. In 2008, the caucus thrust Mike Huckabee into top-tier status, and Mitt Romney’s second-place finish was, in some ways, the beginning of the end.

What’s more, Iowa politicos are all-too aware of their state’s prominence during election cycles. When presidential candidate Jon Huntsman admitted his strategy will keep him out of Iowa, state officials layered on the criticism.

“If he doesn’t come to Iowa, he’s not going to be the Republican nominee,” Don Racheter, vice chair of Iowans for Tax Relief, was quoted as saying in the Des Moines Register.

Steve Scheffler, a Republican National Committeeman, told local media that Romney “needs to come to Iowa…”

“I don’t think he should have to think about coming to Iowa,” Scheffler added. “He does need, in my view, to participate in Aug. 11 debate and Aug. 13 straw poll.” (Romney skipping Iowa straw poll)

State Rep. Steven Lukan was also recently quoted as saying, “I think anybody that chooses to skip Iowa does so at their own peril. It’s very much a state that anybody can come in and do well in if you’re willing to commit the time. Iowans work very hard at vetting their candidates. Candidates leave Iowa better than they came here.”

It’s a sentiment that is often applied to every presidential candidate. But so far in the 2012 cycle, Romney appears to be the exception to the rule.

This time around, the former Governor of Massachusetts has taken a different approach to the state. While Romney does have a campaign structure in place, it’s minimal and much less active than it was three years ago. (CBS ignores Herman Cain’s performance in Iowa poll)

His first campaign trip to the state this year was not until the end of May. Moreover, earlier this month, the Romney campaign announced he will be skipping all straw polls, including Iowa’s in August.

Despite that, Romney has led in almost every single Iowa poll for the Republican candidates.

According to RealClearPolitics, Romney has come in second in two statewide polls, finishing behind Sarah Palin. The last three Iowa polls, however, showed Romney at the top of the field.

Although that does include the Des Moines Register poll that had Romney in a statistical tie with Michele Bachmann, the last PPP poll and Neighborhood Research poll had former Massachusetts governor clearly at the top.

In the PPP poll, Romney came in at 21 percent. Sarah Palin and Herman Cain tied for second with 15 percent. In the Neighborhood poll, Romney finished with 15 percent and second place went to Newt Gingrich with 8 percent.

While those polls are just a snapshot of Romney’s stature in Iowa, it’s clear he’s enjoying a relatively effortless lead.

Iowans chalk it up to name identification and residual effects from the 2008 campaign, in which Romney invested millions of dollars.

“Romney enjoys a lot of name ID,” one Republican source told The Daily Caller, adding that ongoing fluidity in the field has worked to Romney’s benefit.

Plus, the sources added, “He has a campaign here, thought it is smaller than it was in 2008.”

“It’s name ID at this point, reflecting again the imp0rtant nature of the Iowa caucus,” said Tim Albrecht, Communications Director for Governor Terry Branstad. “It’s organize, organize, organize. So while the polls reflect a certain line-up now, those who can mobilize their people to the straw poll and caucuses can defy any polls and any convention wisdom.”

“To me, Mitt Romney is a likable guy,” said Republican consultant Phillip Stutts. “I think it also shows the quality of the other candidates out there. The question is, can he grow beyond 25 percent? Is that his ceiling? Or can he go beyond that?”

Dave Funk, co-chair of the Polk County GOP, had a different take on the Des Moines Register poll, telling TheDC it is not an “accurate depiction of the Republican field,” since it polled an equal number of Independents and Republicans.

Can Romney actually win the Iowa caucus?

“Of course,” said Stutts. The GOP source, on the other hand, replied by saying to expect a lot of movement in the field, especially after the straw poll.

Albrecht added that while Romney still has a loyal following from 2008, “those supporters could spread out to other candidates, but so far they really haven’t.”

  • WhatConstitution

    Does reading the news lead you to believe you really know what’s going on in America?

    This may be shocking, but here are 5 things you’re most likely wrong about.

    You never heard of Sarah Palin before she was announced as McCain’s running mate. If you believe that her name is really Sarah Palin, you’re wrong.

    Palin and McCain said they were going to reform Washington. If you think they were going to do this by getting elected, you’re wrong.

    Obama disappeared for 2 weeks after winning the election only to reappear looking exhausted sitting next to John McCain, with a bad poker face, for a press photo shoot. If you believe Obama has free will and the feds aren’t writing his teleprompter, you’re wrong.

    If you believe that we caught Bin Laden immediately following the release of Obama’s birth certificate, you’re wrong.

    If you believe that the feds haven’t recruited editors, journalists, and moderators to write the headlines and control the commenting on major news sites in an effort to suppress this information, you’re very wrong.

    This is what our federal government doesn’t want leaking out
    http://alturl.com/nj22n

  • Pingback: Morning Mix: Blame It On The Cain | Care2 Causes

  • JL1999

    Does anyone read all thse long winded and copy-paste comments here? I don’t.

  • Yea_ISaidIt

    Romney’s real name is Dole III, but his friends call him McSame Jr. This guy and huntsman have the same tailor, and both have $400 haircuts like TV Preachers. What they do not have is credibility…they are both RINO’s and We need a Fighter and a tough monetary Conservative.

    There is no way Romney can win the general…none. He’s another bag of sound-bites and platitudes.

    Seriously, just who’s side is this guy on? It is Not the American People;

    Romney is the Fav. of East Coast Republicans, and Wall Street.

    Romney never saw a bail-out he didn’t like.

    Romney supports the Cap and Trade Tax.

    Romney Supports alGore’s Global Warming scam.

    Romney does not support restructuring the tax code, or getting the Government out of our business.

    So what could we expect from a Romney Administration? More of the same. He represents the Status Que in Washington, and Romney in practice would be Obama Lite…no real change at all. There is No chance Romney would undue what our current failure in Chief has done to our country. Electing Romney to office would not stop or reverse the Obama Plan; He would just slow it down a little.

  • lnardozi

    Really, why should he? He’s just going to get beat to death by Ron Paul. It’s not like he has anything to say either, Romney is a breeze that blows in whatever direction is convenient. Just like Bachmann, once either of them get in they’ll promptly forget every promise they made and do as they please.

  • Citizen Jerry

    Gee Amanda, tell us who you’re really supporting for president. Willard Romney is what Reagan called a “pale pastel,” a squishy moderate like McCain who’s proud of “reaching across the aisle in bipartisanship.”
    One of the larger TEA party groups have said if the Republicans force Willard on us, they might sit this one out. That should tell you something. And the GOP will go the way of the Whigs.
    We need a conservative candidate, not Democrat Lite.

  • kingfish

    I have good friends who are Mormons, and I admire their personal qualities and family lifestyles. However, recent articles are bringing to light graft by the church leadership, and ask valid questions about the issues now supported by the church. Romney received a $400 million payoff involving the Bush/Clinton criminal cabal.
    (google: White Hat Report #12)

    MORMON LEADERS ACCUSED OF BILLION DOLLAR GOLD THEFT
    http://www.moneyteachers.org/Rothschilds+Gift+to+Mormons.htm

    EXCERPT:
    “This gold…ended up in the Granite Mountain Vaults owned by the Mormon Church. Thousands of metric tons of gold, sitting in the vaults of the Mormon Church could explain why the leadership is so willing to support corrupt individuals like the Cannons, Marriots, Eccles, Bush, Cheney, Reid, Hatch, Huntsmans and Romney.”

    Mormon Church Assists Bilderberg Agenda
    http://www.moneyteachers.org/Mormon+Bilderbergers.htm

    • Eichendorff

      If you really believe the tripe on this Web site, then you are stark raving mad.

  • DANIEL CABRERA

    Are polls really reliable?….BLAST POLLS!

    You know what?….this thing of. “…Romney is up…”,…”Romney has double digits…”,….this and that about Romney…..all that fanfare is just bogus.

    The man is a younger version of the classic rino-type / deal maker / cross over party lines fallacy for talking and do nothing.

    The american public knows what is going on – which is – that the GOP, pollsters (some of them)are trying to shove in the idea that this guy is the best shot we the people have to detrhone the Obama regime.

    I have an example of this very calculated crafty promotional dymamic…and came from Mr Karl Rove…who is someone that will feel very comfortableto perpetuate ‘ploitics as always’ there in Washington.

    Just walk with me.

    What follws is sent all over the entire NET
    ==============================

    I received this email from Karl Rove;…here is the tittle;

    How the GOP Can Blow It in 2012
    _____________________________
    Thursday, June 30, 2011 12:57 PM
    From:
    This sender is DomainKeys verified
    “Karl Rove”
    Add sender to Contacts.

    Story short,..it is a propaganda rino-type rancid / old school republican…where Mr romney looks like a ’strong answer’ to our socio-economic dilema’ among other thngs.
    =============================

    And this is what I did reply to him;

    Dear Mr Rove,

    The GOP can blow it , BIG TIME!, on 2012 if they allow themselves to put another RINO-TYPE / DEAL-MAKER / CROSSING PARTY LINES TALKER AND DO NOTHING presidential candidate,…like for example, Mr Romney who is claimed to be ‘ahead on the polls,…’ but you know so well that is the prominent pick for the rancid old school of republicans that along with the unconstitutionalists democrats, have the blasted country down to the sewers.

    We, the people out here knows and interpret that the so called ‘ahead’
    is just an scam to attempt fool the electorate to divert attention from the only candidate that can really kick out the Obama regime out of Washington and stop the corruption that for a number of decades are ‘the cup of tea’ for politicians there in goverment – you know I am talking about Gov Sarah Palin.

    So in others words don’t support Palin and you can kiss good bye the healing for our great country.

    Got that?….I hope so.

    Sincerely,
    Daniel Cabrera
    Merrillville,Indiana

  • Hamilton-Jeffersonian

    If Bachman can’t take Iowa, she’s toast.