Michele Bachmann is leading in Iowa, beating out Mitt Romney by a shallow margin, according to a poll conducted by American Research Group, Inc. and released Tuesday.
The poll found Bachmann to be the preference of 21 percent of likely Republican caucus goers, while 18 percent said they preferred Romney. Ron Paul got 14 percent, followed by Sarah Palin with 11 percent. No other candidate made it into double digits.
That echoes the results of a poll released on Monday by The Iowa Republican, which found Bachmann leading with 25 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 21 percent.
Bachmann’s lead is even stronger among Tea Party supporters, who comprised 54 percent of ARG’s sample. 30 percent said they preferred Bachmann, while 15 percent said they preferred Paul. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin tied for third with 11 percent, while Romney’s share of the vote dropped into single digits at 7 percent.
Among those who say they do not support the Tea Party or are undecided, Romney leads with 31 percent.
Bachmann’s standing with independent voters is far more tenuous. Just 2 percent of independents polled said they would support her. Paul and Romney are virtually tied among independents, with 24 percent saying they preferred Paul and 23 percent going for Romney. Palin is in third with 15 percent of the vote.
The ARG poll is not good news for Tim Pawlenty or Herman Cain, both of whom clock in with just 2 percent of the vote. They fare little better with independents or Tea Party supporters. The Iowa Republican, on the other hand, found Cain and Pawlenty tied for third place, “at just under nine percent.” Pawlenty’s path to the nomination is seen as hinging on a strong performance in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
The ARG poll is based on phone interviews with 600 likely Republican caucus goers (505 registered Republicans and 95 Independents) between July 5 and July 11, 2011. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.