Americans continue to be fairly confident that the two sides will reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling before the government defaults, though they are unsure on whether that deal will include significant government spending cuts, according to a Rasmussen poll released Thursday.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters Tuesday and Wednesday and found that 33 percent believe it is very likely that the debt ceiling will be raised before the government defaults, and 37 percent believe it is somewhat likely.
That state of mind has slipped only slightly after all the ups and downs and dramatic blow-ups of the past two weeks. A poll taken from July 16 to July 17 found that 36 percent of Americans thought it was very likely that the debt ceiling would be raised in time to prevent default, and 40 percent said it was somewhat likely.
A Pew poll released Tuesday found people to be more confident – 56 percent said they believed the government would resolve the issue before the August 2 deadline, and just 38 percent said that it would not.
The Rasmussen poll found that whether or not the deal to raise the debt ceiling will include significant cuts to government spending over the long term is much more in doubt. 34 percent called it somewhat likely to happen before the 2012 election; 36 percent said it was not very likely.
There is bipartisan support for a compromise, even if it is not a perfect compromise, according to the Pew poll. 68 percent said a congressman who held views closest to their own would compromise, “even if they strike a deal you disagree with.” 53 percent of Republicans said they favored compromise, along with 81 percent of Democrats, and 69 percent of independents.
Americans are not particularly pleased with the way politicians are handling the debate. 38 percent say they strongly disapprove of the way Republicans are handle it, and an almost equal number – 39 percent – disapprove of the way the president and Democrats are handling it.
This poll finds a higher level of confidence in congressional Republicans than most other polls on the topic lately. A CNN/ORC poll found that 63 percent believed that Republicans were not acting responsibly.
The CNN/ORC poll also suggests that it will be the Republicans who bear the brunt of the blame if the debt ceiling is not raised. 51 percent said they would blame Republicans in that scenario, compared to just 30 percent who would blame Obama and 15 percent who would blame both. (RELATED: CNN poll: In debt limit debate, Obama has the public on his side)
Over the past 10 days there has been an increase in scrutiny of the proceedings by the American public. Ten days ago, 49 percent said they were following the debate very closely. The poll released today found that now 59 percent are watching it very closely.
That number correlates with a high level of concern that Congress and the president will not reach a deal by August 2, the day that the Treasury has designated as the day the government will go into default. A Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Tuesday found that 83 percent of adult Americans are concerned, and among those 54 percent are very concerned that an agreement will not be reached on time.
It’s worth noting that given the rapidity with which things have changed in this debate and the constantly shifting sides, a poll conducted over multiple days is likely to capture a wide array of public opinion influenced by several different and possibly conflicting events.
The Rasmussen poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters nationwide from July 26-27 using robo-calls. The CNN/ORC poll surveyed 1,009 adult Americans from July 18-20 in phone interviews and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The Pew poll surveyed 1,501 adults nationwide in telephone interviews from July 20-24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.