Joseph Gurney Cannon, one of the most powerful speakers to command the House, haunts the political field to this day: A single floor of the congressional office building bearing his name will likely determine the current speaker’s political fate.
The fifth floor of the Cannon House Office Building is a political wasteland. It’s where freshmen members join their fellow congressional office lottery losers in the oldest, most run-down congressional building in the capital. Currently, it’s the home of a small cadre of newly elected Tea Party conservatives, including Maryland’s Andy Harris and Georgia’s Austin Scott.
But Cannon’s dreary fifth floor, a microcosm of the 87 GOP freshmen, may serve as a bellwether for Speaker John Boehner’s debt plan.
Make no mistake — this is a big deal. As I noted yesterday, conservatives are divided over the deal, and powerful outside groups like The Club for Growth are urging conservatives to vote against it. A defeat could gut Boehner’s speakership and increase the odds Republicans are blamed for a default.
With this in mind, I conducted an unofficial whip count of the fifth floor of Cannon. Only nine of the Republican offices would talk. Of the nine, seven members are leaning toward voting “yes,” while two are leaning “no.”
The official House vote is slated to take place around 6:15 pm EST. Based on the results of this informal survey, Boehner’s revised debt deal seems likely to pass the House tonight.