GOP ‘insiders’ poll: Romney leads but Perry is closing in

Matt K. Lewis Senior Contributor
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National Journal regularly conducts a “Political Insiders Poll” — which essentially involves emailing people like Alex Castellanos and Mindy Finn and asking them who will win the Republican nomination.

According to the latest survey, the insiders are starting to take a liking to Texas Governor Rick Perry:

For five consecutive Political Insiders Polls dating back to January, 2010, Romney has held onto his first-place ranking in this survey.

… [But now] Perry has rocketed into contention, even though he has yet to declare he’s a candidate.

This certainly shows confidence in Perry’s potential, as well as discontent with Romney and the current GOP field. And it confirms my suspicions that Perry will be very formidable.

On the other hand, the logic of querying “insiders” is questionable. (Intrade is probably a better predictor.)

“The hardest thing to do in politics is to think like an outsider when you’ve become an insider, says Dick Morris. Perhaps that explains why the insiders’ predictions haven’t always come true? They predicted a George Allen versus Hillary Clinton race in 2008. And as late as July of 2007 — after Allen had faded (thanks to “Macaca”) — Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney were basically tied for first place among insiders.

And so, I suppose this obviously means that Newt Gingrich will be your next GOP nominee…

Matt K. Lewis