The Daily Caller

The Daily Caller

Polls mixed on whether the GOP has room for more candidates

Normally, by mid-August the presidential field would be set. But the 2012 cycle is anything but normal: Rick Perry entered the race this weekend, and he may not be the last. Paul Ryan is reportedly pondering a run. Sarah Palin’s bus tour is up and running again. Rudy Giuliani has said he’ll make a decision by September. And Karl Rove is suggesting Chris Christie could still be a welcome addition.

Polling, too, suggests that several of those possible candidates could have an impact on the race.

In the Daily Caller/ConservativeHome tracking poll, Chris Christie has sat at or near the top of the pack since the beginning. In June, before he was removed from the poll, 15.2 percent of likely Republican primary voters said he was the most electable candidate, outperforming everyone except for Mitt Romney. And 14 percent named Christie their top choice for president, tying him with Sarah Palin, behind Herman Cain, but ahead of Mitt Romney. (RELATED: Who has the best job-growth record)

Paul Ryan was less of a powerhouse but performed well for someone whose name had not been discussed often as a presidential hopeful. In June, before he too was eliminated from polling contention, 6.5 percent named him as their top choice. That put Ryan near the bottom of the pack, but still above declared candidates John Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich.

In other national polls, Palin and Giuliani regularly poll at the top. A national CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released last week found Giuliani and Palin tying Ron Paul for third place in the primary field, just three percentage points behind Mitt Romney. The same poll found that in a general election, only a Giuliani candidacy would deny President Obama four more years in the White House.

It’s worth noting, of course, that Giuliani was in the same position during the last presidential cycle — on top of the national polls — even after it became clear that he had no chance of winning the nomination.

For that reason, state-leve polls may be more instructive.

In the most recent WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll, conducted from end of June into the first of July, Giuliani ranked a distant third among Granite Staters, tying Ron Paul with 7 percent of the vote. Romney led with 35 percent, followed by Bachmann with 12 percent. Giuliani regularly polls around 7 percent in most New Hampshire polls.

Of course, the race changed considerably last weekend. Pawlenty is out, Perry is in, Bachmann is the favorite in Iowa after winning the Ames Straw Poll, and, for the moment at least, the race has a new front-runner in the Texas governor. So the old polling, at this point, is just that: old.

It’s still not clear what kind of impact the undeclared candidates could have if they jumped in.

“Palin’s on again, off again engagement with voters has worn thin and they have turned to Bachmann,” one Republican political consultant told TheDC. “There is virtually no one who will write a check to Rudy 2012 after Rudy ’08, and Bolton is not a politician, which is a requirement for getting elected. Ryan is a smart guy, and has to recognize that he is not ready”

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_NJZAQIBG5PWHW26NVD7C4YFKOE Frank E

    I am losing faith in Mr. Christi.  He says it is none of my damn business where he sends his kids to school.  I beg to differ with him. This is what is wrong with ALL politicians.  They have too many benefits that the average American does not.  As long as the pols have special things like a cadillac retirement plan,  exempt from Obama care, etc they will never make things better–Why should they?  As soon as the Politicians start sending their kids to public school the sooner public schools get better, or the voucher system goes into effect.

  • Anonymous

    Chris Christie needs to go to Rehab for Morbidly Obese people.  He is NOT healthy and could not hold up to the rigors of the job of POTUS on a day to day basis.  Besides he has Second Amendment issues and is totally IGNORANT of Sharia Law.  He will never get my vote.

    Go Perry! 

  • http://foxnation.com TeaPartyPatriot4ever

    You haven’t seen nothing yet.. by the time 6 Nov. 2012, gets here, Obama poll numbers will have no where to go but up..!!

    So it’s no wonder everyone is running for President.. the dog catcher, the busboy, the paperboy, the janitor, Joe Biden..   and chris christie’s sudden interest in it, from Gov/ Perry’s immediate poll success, has given him political fuel for second, and after thoughts..  but is also not surprising..  as the old saying goes- “how can you tell when a politician is lying, when they open their mouths”..  remember this great quote- “Read my lips”..

  • http://foxnation.com TeaPartyPatriot4ever

    You haven’t seen nothing yet.. by the time 6 Nov. 2012, gets here, Obama poll numbers will have no where to go but up..!!

    So it’s no wonder everyone is running for President.. the dog catcher, the busboy, the paperboy, the janitor, Joe Biden..   and chris christie’s sudden interest in it, from Gov/ Perry’s immediate poll success, has given him political fuel for second, and after thoughts..  but is also not surprising..  as the old saying goes- “how can you tell when a politician is lying, when they open their mouths”..  remember this great quote- “Read my lips”..

  • Humorless

    What?  They’re already sick of Perry???

  • Anonymous

    http://perryforpresidentfml.com/

    Help our presidential candidate Rick Perry by passing this website to everyone!! RICK FOR PRESIDENT!!!> Learn more about him here!!! Wooo RICK PERRY gooo!!!

  • Welosch

    Personally, so far I’m all in for Herman Cain.

  • patriot4evah

    Christie said he would “commit suicide before running for president” (who talks like that?).. anyway, should he enter the race, he is just one more lying scumbag of a politician.

  • theveed

    Look, on thisone, no matter who it is, we MUST fish out of the RIGHT side of the boat. Any of em will be better than what we have