Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner are running even in the race to replace former Rep. Anthony Weiner, according to an internal Republican poll released Thursday.
Roll Call reports that the poll, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, found 42 percent of likely voters would vote for Weprin and 42 percent would vote for Turner. Sixteen percent of those polled said they were undecided.
Democrats have a large voter registration advantage in New York’s 9th Congressional District, making the results of the poll surprising. They come on the heels of a Siena poll which found Turner trailing Weprin by a mere six points.
McLaughlin polled 300 voters in live telephone interviews, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.
Politico’s David Catanese cautioned that McLaughlin’s polling has been wrong in the past.
A New York-based Republican political consultant also noted that “special elections are about turn out” and “turn out is about organization.” Republicans in the district have a fairly fractured organization. Democrats, on the other hand, have unions, and the unions will get their voters to the polls, the consultant said.
“That’s a hidden five to ten percent bump right there that Turner doesn’t have,” the consultant added.