Herman Cain may be leading the polls, but futures-trading website Intrade suggests that, while people may like the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, few actually expect that he will win the Republican nomination. Rather, most seem to have accepted Mitt Romney’s nomination as inevitable.
Though Cain has seen a huge surge in the past month, the odds that he will be the Republican nominee are just 8.9 percent on Intrade, so shares are trading at 89 cents each. Shares in Romney being the Republican nominee, in contrast, are trading at $6.61 each.
Even Texas Gov. Rick Perry, whose numbers have plummeted over the past month, is given better odds for being the Republican nominee than Cain is. Despite a more than 10 point drop in his odds following Tuesday’s debate, Intrade chances of a Perry nomination are currently at 10.1 percent — still narrowly better than the odds of Cain being nominated.
Nonetheless, Cain’s rise on Intrade has been as meteoric as his rise in the polls. On September 24, Cain shares were trading at below 10 cents. Since then, Cain has multiplied his odds several times over. On Tuesday — the day of the last Republican debate — odds on Cain jumped two points: A large bump for him relative to the low price of his shares.
Nonetheless, people on Intrade still seem to see Cain as existing in a totally different ball park than Romney.
The price of Romney shares also rose following the debate, from just over $6.00 to approximately $6.60. The enormous price differential implies that while people like Cain and see his chances at getting the nomination have improved, he is still not taken entirely seriously as a candidate.