Esteemed GOP strategist and former George W. Bush adviser Ed Gillespie told The Daily Caller Tuesday that President Barack Obama’s “only hope” for re-election is “to try and energize more Democratic voters and try to identify the non-voters from the last election and get them into the process.”
“The other part we are already seeing, which is a relentless, nasty campaign against Republicans,” Gillespie said. “It’s not hope and change, it is just fear and scare tactics.”
Gillespie, a board member of Resurgent Republic, which released a comprehensive survey Tuesday showing seven out of ten registered voters see the country on the wrong track, added “that’s a pretty desperate place to be” for the president.
Perhaps the two most important data points from the poll, according to Gillespie, are Obama’s poor showing in swing states and “the continuing problem that he has with independent voters who are going to be pretty important in those swing states.”
“There is a correlation, obviously, between his problem with independent voters and his problem in the swing states,” he added.
The poll asked respondents to say whether things had gotten better, worse or stayed the same since Obama was inaugurated in six different areas. In only one area — America’s safety from terrorists — did a plurality of respondents indicate things had gotten better.
In four other areas — America’s economy, the federal government’s financial situation, the federal government’s ability to solve problems and America’s standing in the world — either a plurality or an outright majority said that things had gotten worse. In the sixth area — their own financial situation — more respondents said things had gotten worse than better. Gillespie says that result “reinforces an over-arching narrative which is that [President Obama] is essentially a failed president.”
“He didn’t actually do any of the things that he said he was going to do,” Gillespie said.
“He said that he was going to improve our standing in the world — he didn’t. He said that he was going to change the tone in Washington — he didn’t. He said he was going to rise above partisanship — he clearly hasn’t. He said he was going to improve the economy — he didn’t. He said … that health care costs would go done and they haven’t,” he said.
“On issue after issue after issue, significant promises that he made and statements that he said about his policies have been proven [to be] completely the opposite,” Gillespie declared.
But considering that Obama did fare well in the category dealing with protecting America from terrorists, does that take foreign policy off the table as an issue in 2012?
“Not really,” said Gillespie. “It is interesting that he does seem to be fairing best in those areas where he essentially maintained the Bush administration policies.”
One poll result that Gillespie said is damning is that only 42 percent of voters say that Obama deserves re-election while 51 percent say it is time for someone else.
“It’s unlikely that those voters who say that he doesn’t deserve re-election today are going to reverse themselves a year from now,” Gillespie said, explaining the significance of the numbers. “They’re going to end up voting for the Republican.”
President Obama’s health care bill comes out poorly in the poll, with a plurality of respondents saying they oppose it and 50 percent saying costs have gone up since the bill’s passage, compared to only two percent saying they’ve seen costs go down. But will the GOP be able to exploit public dissatisfaction with Obamacare if Mitt Romney, who supported a similar bill on the state level as governor of Massachusetts, is the nominee?
“I think that his flat out statement that on day one he would repeal Obamacare and grant waivers to the states provides a pretty stark contrast to President Obama who continues to say to this day that it’s a good thing, even though there is no evidence to support that,” Gillespie said, indicating that Romney would still have an advantage on the health care issue.
Asked who he thinks the toughest GOP opponent to Obama would be, Gillespie danced around giving a firm answer, admittedly providing a “cop-out” response instead of coming down in favor of one of the contenders.
“This is going to sound like a cop-out partly because it is, it’s obviously still a fluid race,” he said. “I think that whomever emerges as the Republican nominee as a result of that is going to be very well positioned to win next November because he or she will have demonstrated himself or herself to be a viable candidate.”