Republicans say the Supreme Court’s review of President Obama’s health sector takeover will help the GOP in 2012, even though the outcome will likely rest on a single unpredictable judge, Anthony Kennedy.
Obama championed the law and “if the court defeats the law, that’s a political disaster for him,” said Tevi Troy, a former top official in George W. Bush’s administration.
But, he added, “I’ve no idea what Kennedy will will do, and no one else has either.”
“Republicans don’t lose at any point, unless the court was to, in an unqualified way, side with the law,” predicted Tony Fratto, a former Bush spokesman and now a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies.
Even the campaign trail debate over the 2009 law will likely damage Obama’s chances, according to numerous polls.
Swing voters oppose the law by 54 percent to 34 percent, according to polling conducted by Resurgent Republic, a GOP-aligned firm in Alexandria, Va.
In swing states more generally, opposition to the law is at 48 percent, while merely 40 percent of voters support it. Undecided voters lean against the law by a 50–34 margin, according to Resurgent’s polls.
But the GOP ‘s polling gain from any debate over the law will be muted by Democrats’ eagerness to avoid the issue, Fratto said. Democrats learned from the 2010 mid-terms elections that “the more they would talk, the less popular it becomes,” he added.
Opposition to the law has gained momentum as new problems have emerged.
Health care costs continue to rise, for instance, and the percentage of Americans who whose employers provide health insurance has slipped from 50 percent in 2008 to 44.5 percent in late 2011, according to Gallup’s November findings.
The percentage of uninsured Americans has risen from 14.6 percent to 17.3 percent over the same period, Gallup reported. In October, Wal-Mart announced that new part-time employees would not be allowed join the company’s health-insurance plan.
The high court’s decision to consider the law — whatever the final outcome — helps GOP candidates by validating their criticisms, said Troy. In public debates, the court’s involvement “bolsters their argument that the Republicans have made, that it is an extra-constitutional power-grab … [and] not well thought-out or considered,” he said.
The Obama campaign will likely respond by urging its supporters to rally around the law, Troy added. Obama “is going to make the case that ‘We’d better make sure we win the election so that we can fix this one problem,’” he said.
But Resurgent’s polls show that Democratic support for the law is weaker than the opposition among GOP partisans and swing voters.
“At best … [the issue] only helps President Obama with his base, but even so, it motivates Republicans more,” read a statement from Resurgent Republic spokesman Luke Frans. “When looking at intensity, more Republicans strongly oppose the health care law (69 percent) than Democrats who strongly support it (48 percent).”
Overall, “Republicans oppose the plan by 81 to 13 percent … [while] Democrats support it by 72 to 13 percent.”
These poll numbers are matched by others that show public opposition to the takeover law building slowly and steadily.
The Kaiser Family Foundation, for example, championed the law, but its September poll numbers showed opposition to the law at 51 percent, and support at only 34 percent.
Democrats today declared themselves confident the court will approve the law, which punishes Americans who choose not to buy a product — health-care insurance — and gives the federal government a central role in managing the price and availability of health care services and products.
“We are pleased the Court has agreed to hear this case,” said a statement from the White House. “We know the Affordable Care Act is constitutional and are confident the Supreme Court will agree.”
Democrats, however, had long argued that the court should not review the law, which they say is a routine extension of federal authority to regulate domestic commerce.
“It was not widely expected that the Supreme Court would agree to consider the constitutionality,” of the Medicaid expansion mandated in the law, said a statement from the National Women’s Law Center, whose lawyers work on enforcement of federal civil regulations related to women. “The Center has confidence that the Court will respect legal precedent and recognize that the Constitution permits Congress to take action in the face of a national health care crisis.”
Republicans, including House Speaker John Boehner, welcomed the court’s decision to get involved. “This government takeover of health care is threatening jobs, increasing costs, and jeopardizing coverage for millions of Americans, and I hope the Supreme Court overturns it,” said a statement from Boehner’s office.