Despite an impressive finish in Iowa Tuesday night, Rick Santorum still has a long way to go if he hopes to capture the GOP nomination. But while some observers might cavalierly write him off as a one-hit wonder, there is a conceivable path for Santorum to win the nomination.
The first key is to winnow the field. Republicans have often nominated moderate-leaning candidates, simply because the conservative alternatives split the vote, allowing someone to run up the middle. The possibility that Perry and/or Bachmann might drop out greatly diminishes that likelihood. (***Note: Since writing this, Bachmann has dropped out and Perry has decided to stay in.)
Now, consider this scenario going into New Hampshire: Jon Huntsman steals some moderate votes away from Romney — while Newt Gingrich bashes Romney from the right. (The negative attacks then lead both Romney and Gingrich to decline in popularity.)
According to Greg Mueller, a campaign veteran who has advised past presidential campaigns of conservatives Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes, a similar scenario helped Buchanan win New Hampshire in 1996: “The combination of Buchanan’s economic populist, cultural conservative message resonating as Forbes hammered Dole as a tax and spend moderate, helped propel Buchanan to a New Hampshire victory,” he recalled.
“It looks like Newt could be for Santorum in 2012 what Forbes was for Buchanan in ’96 — labeling Romney a ‘Massachusetts moderate’ may siphon votes from Romney to either Santorum or Huntsman,” Mueller added.
Let’s assume the scenario plays out as Mueller suggests, allowing Santorum to finish a close second behind Romney in the Granite State.
Because Romney has long dominated in the New Hampshire polls, Santorum (as was the case in Iowa) would win the expectations game by virtue of merely coming in a close second (Don’t forget, second place made Bill Clinton the “comeback kid.”)
Next, suppose that Gingrich — having finished a disappointing third or fourth in New Hampshire — decides to drop out. And as a parting shot to Romney, he endorses the surging Santorum — just before South Carolina (Gingrich said very kind words about him in his speech last night.)
Because of the internet and other modern technology, Santorum — unlike conservatives in the past — parlays his success in Iowa and South Carolina into real money.
Continuing the scenario — unlike Iowa (which has a fairly low unemployment rate) — the good folks of the Palmetto State are struggling. Santorum’s economic populist message — and his comments about how to rejuvenate a diminishing manufacturing base — play well there, helping score a victory in the state.
From there, Santorum rides the momentum into Florida, and from there …
This scenario may not be likely, and there are certainly other possibilities — maybe Jon Huntsman catches fire, instead? — but it isn’t impossible to imagine a path to victory for Santorum.
The key, of course, is for conservatives to finally coalesce around one candidate. That could spell big trouble for Romney — who seems to have a ceiling of support — and could potentially be the key to making Rick Santorum the GOP nominee.