This photo taken May 8, 2012 shows President Barack Obama speaking at the University at Albany This photo taken May 8, 2012 shows President Barack Obama speaking at the University at Albany's College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering in Albany, N.Y. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)  

Reuters poll over-samples Democrats by 9 percent, finds 7-point Obama edge

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Christopher Bedford
Managing Editor

A Reuters poll released Tuesday bucked recent trends and showed President Barack Obama ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by seven points. The poll, however, appears to have over-sampled Democrats by a wide margin, skewing the results in the president’s favor.

Though a January Gallup poll found that Democrats outnumber Republicans in the United States by only 4 percent, an April Rasmussen poll showed a 35.1 percent to 33.1 percent split in favor of self-identified Republicans. (RELATED: Full coverage of the 2012 elections)

Still, the Americans polled by Reuters were 47 percent Democrats, 38 percent Republicans and 15 percent independents — a nine-point difference in favor of voters likely to support President Obama’s re-election effort.

The Reuters poll was conducted between May 3 and May 7. Three other polls — by Rasmussen, Gallup and Politco/GWU/Battleground — conducted at a similar time show Romney winning by five points, three points and one point respectively. An IDB/CSM/TIPP poll showed Obama ahead by three, and a poll by the Democratic-affiliated Democracy Corps showed the two candidates tied.

A spread compiled by Real Clear Politics averaging those six polls put Obama ahead by .2 points. But with the Reuters poll a clear outlier, it’s likely that Romney would hold a slight edge if polling samples more closely reflected the leanings of likely voters.

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