1) The most interesting race you haven’t heard of
The Republican primary in Florida’s 7th District is one of the most interesting races you’ve never heard of. The race pits freshman Rep. Sandy Adams against Rep. John Mica, chairman of the House Transportation Committee.
The incumbent-on-incumbent is a result of redistricting, which mashed together parts of Mica’s district with parts of Adams’ district. Though either could have opted to run in another district (Florida permits representatives to represent districts in which they do not officially reside), both decided that the 7th District was the place for them, and here we are today.
The race is basically a “microcosm of the tea party versus establishment,” in the words of Dina Fraioli, a Republican political strategist not involved in the race.
“John Mica’s chief sin is being in D.C. for too long,” she said, suggesting that this was a race much in the mold of the Richard Mourdock versus Sen. Dick Lugar primary.
Adams is the tea party firebrand counting on passionate voters to propel her to victory as they did in 2010, when she was first elected to office. Tea party star power has flocked to Adams’ aid, with endorsements from Sarah Palin, RedState’s Erick Erickson, Tea Party Nation founder Judson Phillips, and, as of Thursday, Rep. Allen West. Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Arizona has also endorsed Adams.
“Tea party momentum is still in Florida,” said Fraioli, making the West endorsement a strong positive for Adams — and not good for Mica.
Mica is the far better-funded candidate, with higher name recognition and establishment support. Mike Huckabee endorsed him this week, and several members of Congress from other states have also openly supported him, Politico reported, though they have not been asked to go to bat for him in Florida. He regularly trounces Adams in various straw polls, and his campaign released the results of an internal poll earlier this month that had him 38 points in front.
The Adams campaign brushed off all of this, with senior strategist Jason Roe telling the Orlando Sentinel, “John Mica should enjoy all the faux victories he racks up in his own skewed polls and purchased straw polls. None of his Wizard of Oz campaigning will matter when the voters have their say.”
The central Florida district’s primary is Aug. 14.
2) Texas to finally pick a Republican Senate candidate
The Texas Senate run-off is finally upon us, and after months of waiting, Texans will go to the polls Tuesday to pick the Republican nominee for senate, who will almost certainly be the next senator.
Ted Cruz, the former solicitor general, is riding high on momentum and favorable polls and is expected to pull off a victory over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, despite the fact that Dewhurst beat him in the original election (no candidate received a majority, so the top two went to a run-off).
Some of the biggest stars the tea party has to offer have headed to the Lone Star State to campaign for Cruz in the final days. On Friday, Cruz will hold a rally with Sarah Palin, as well as Sens. Jim DeMint, Rand Paul and Mike Lee. On Saturday, Rick Santorum is holding a get-out-the-vote rally.
Both sides have continued going at it in the ad war, with a Super PAC supporting Dewhurst launching one of the nastier ads of the cycle, which accuses Cruz of causing a man’s suicide, because as a lawyer, he defended a client who was involved in Pennsylvania’s “kids for cash” scandal.
Cruz’s wife, Heidi, called it “despicable” and “false.”
“As a mother of two young girls, my heart weeps for this mother who lost her son. But I am repulsed by a desperate politician willing to exploit her grief to try to falsely claim, in the final days of the campaign, that Ted is responsible for killing children.”
The election is expected to be low-turnout. Falling in the dog days of summer — far later than any Texas election usually takes place — many people are on vacation, if not completely tuned out. If Cruz wins, as the most recent poll in the race, from Public Policy Polling, suggests he will, it will validate his campaign’s assertions that in such circumstances, he will be ushered into office by his more enthusiastic, more conservative, and generally more riled-up base of support.
Dewhurst had been considered the favorite since the beginning, with his high name recognition from holding statewide office and his deep pockets. But the momentum seems to be in Cruz’ favor.
Harold Cook, a Democratic strategist in Texas, observed that Dewhurst’s lead had evaporated due to “a combination of two things: Redistricting litigation significantly delayed the election, giving a candidate like Cruz time to make up lost ground. The second factor is that in hindsight, I think Dewhurst’s campaign made a tactical error attacking Cruz so early, with such heavy media buys. Doing so apparently resulted only in significantly raising Cruz’ name I.D., not at Cruz’ expense.”
3) The odd couple
Two new faces have waded into the fray in the Missouri Republican primary, and they are two that you would not expect to be in the race, much less to be in the same race (though they are on different sides): The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has come in to attack Republican Sarah Steelman, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s Super PAC, Majority PAC, is taking on her opponent, Republican John Brunner.
The primary pits Brunner, a businessman, against Steelman, Missouri’s former state treasurer, and Rep. Todd Akin.
The chamber, as a rule, stays out of primaries.
“It’s just a very rare exception that we will do that,” said Rob Engstrom, the chamber’s national political director.
But on Thursday morning, Politico’s Morning Score reported that the chamber began running ads attacking Steelman.
In this particular case, Engstrom explained, they had entered the race to help Brunner because with “his background as a businessman, he understands what our members are going through in this period of an unprecedented threat from Washington.”
The ad refers to Steelman and Democratic incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill as “two peas in a pod.”
“Sarah Steelman, as our ad states, has been consistently supported by trial lawyers and by unions. She voted against medical liability reform when she was in the state Senate, she voted against workers comp when she was in the state Senate, and she’s taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from people who work against the business community,” Engstrom continued. “So we found a champion in John Brunner, we think he’s going to make a great U.S. senator.”
Reid’s Super PAC, which aims to ensure Democrats keep the Senate majority, came in last week, running ads against Brunner that made arguments against him similar to those made by Steelman. Majority PAC’s ad attacks Brunner’s handling of his company, Vi-Jon, saying that he put the company $195 million in debt, and presided over it when its credit rating was downgraded. Given that, the ad questions his ability to handle the nation’s problems as a senator.
The Brunner campaign said that Brunner was no longer running the company when its credit was downgraded in 2012, and defended the debt as a tool used during a merger in 2006, according to PoliticMo blog.
“In a truly unprecedented political move, Harry Reid’s Super PAC is meddling in Missouri’s Republican primary, misleading Republican voters by attacking front-runner John Brunner,” Jon Seaton, the campaign manager for Brunner, told PoliticMo. “Majority PAC’s dishonest attack on John Brunner proves Democrats know Brunner is the only one who can defeat Claire McCaskill in November.”
Engstrom took a dim view of Reid’s involvement in the other side’s politics.
“Majority PAC’s engagement in Republican primaries is a sign of desperation, and we look forward to a debate on the issues,” he said.
4) Taking on the King
The Chamber of Commerce also became the first outside conservative group to get involved in the Maine Senate race: It will begin running ads attacking front-runner Angus King, the popular former independent governor, in the hopes of boosting Republican Charlie Summers’ candidacy.
It’s a race that many have opted to stay out of thus far, given King’s formidable popularity level. Both Democrats and Republicans are seen to have fielded candidates that lack the necessary heft to take on King. But Engstrom was undeterred.
“Every Senate race matters,” he told TheDC.
“Angus King will be held accountable for his record as governor, and he’ll also be held accountable for his positions on federal issues which represent a reliance on government as the answer. And so I think the more that the citizens of Maine learn about Angus King’s position on issues like the health care law, on energy exploration, those poll numbers will tighten dramatically,” he said. He also noted that the chamber is not a partisan organization – in fact, they endorsed Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson of Utah on Thursday – and said he hoped Maine voters would take that into account and take a closer look at King’s record on business issues.
The independent expenditure will certainly be a boon to Summers, and, as The Washington Post pointed out, could help attract other outside groups into the race.
5) Connecticut Senate Republican primary gets mean
The Connecticut Senate Republican primary took a turn for the ugly this week, when former Rep. Chris Shays said that he would not support his opponent, Linda McMahon, if she won the primary, which she is expected to do. Later in the week, he linked the former World Wrestling Entertainment executive and the “brutality” of media, saying they contributed to a “culture of gun violence.”
“I have never run against an opponent that I have respected less — ever — and there are a lot of candidates I have run against,” Shays, who served as a congressman for 22 years, told the New Haven Register editorial board.
“I do not believe that Linda McMahon has spent the time, the energy to determine what a senator really means,” he said.
He called her “embarrassingly clueless” in the debate they had, saying it was “like the story of the emperor with no clothes.”
“I think she is a terrible candidate and I think she would make a terrible senator,” Shays continued.
Unfortunately for Shays, the polls suggest that McMahon will be the one who heads into the general election against Democrat Chris Murphy. The latest poll – from June – had McMahon up by 29 points over Shays, and she won the Connecticut Republican Convention by a nearly identical margin.
Shays Communications Director Amanda Bergen clarified that Shays “only said he wouldn’t campaign for her. That was the extent of his remark on the subject.”
She added that as “a lifelong Republican and fiscal conservative, he would definitely not support Chris Murphy.”
Bergen pointed to the fact that of the two Republican candidates, McMahon is the one with a record of supporting Democratic candidates. According to an OpenSecrets.org report from 2009, McMahon has given money to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Democratic Virginia Sen. Mark Warner and Chicago Mayor and former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel.
She and her husband also gave $8,000 to Shays in his re-election bids in 2006 and 2008.
Later in the week, in an interview with the Greenwich Time and Stamford Advocate editorial boards, he suggested that violent television and video games were to blame for the violent culture of the country, a conversation that has a sharper point in the wake of last week’s shooting in Colorado.
“Frankly, I don’t bring it into the same level of conversation, but my opponent is into issues like brutality and so on,” Shays told the editorial boards. “It’s what we let our kids watch. We need a government conversation about it.”
A spokesman for McMahon told the paper she was proud of having built her business, but declined to comment directly, saying they would not be “getting down in the gutter with Mr. Shays.”
In the same interview, Shays called Murphy a socialist, so perhaps McMahon got off easy.
6) Bloomberg endorses Brown
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown in his race against Democrat Elizabeth Warren on Thursday, citing the Brown’s support for some gun control.
The New York Times reported the endorsement, which comes just one week after the shooting in Aurora, Colo. Bloomberg is an advocate of gun control, co-founded Mayors Against Illegal guns, and he has been very vocal on the subject in the wake of the shooting.
“The biggest reason the mayor is supporting Senator Brown is the senator’s help on one of our biggest gun issues: opposing concealed-carry reciprocity that would let people with gun permits from rural states like Arkansas and Kentucky carry hidden handguns in New York City,” Stu Loeser, the mayor’s spokesman, told The New York Times.
“If you take a tough stand and buck party orthodoxy that helps the city of New York, the mayor would like to support you.’’
Brown welcomed the endorsement.
“Mayor Bloomberg is a true independent who always puts progress over politics,” Brown press secretary Alleigh Marré emailed. “That’s Scott Brown’s philosophy as well, and he is honored to have the mayor’s support.”
It’s an endorsement that many Republicans would run screaming from, but in a state as blue as Massachusetts, it doesn’t carry the same stigma.
“I believe it to be good for Brown,” emailed Trey Grayson, Director of Harvard University’s Institute of Politics. “Bloomberg is well regarded in Massachusetts as someone who gets things done without regard to party label. That is the message that Brown is trying to convey to voters. His most recent web ad quotes [Democrat] JFK, [Democrat] LBJ and [Republican] Reagan, for example.”
As he pointed out, “It may indeed anger some of the strong pro-2nd Amendment folks, but they are less of a factor in Massachusetts given its solid blue state status. Also, where are they going to go?”
The billionaire mayor will hold a fundraiser for Brown on Aug. 15, helping him to tap into the wealth of New York’s donor pool. Brown’s opponent, Elizabeth Warren, has proved to be a formidable fundraiser, raising $3.1 million in June alone.
The New York Times points out that Warren is an avid supporter of the Occupy Wall Street movement, while Bloomberg is decidedly a member of the so-called 1 percent, and is a vocal supporter of Wall Street, whose people and culture Warren has disparaged throughout her campaign.