Gallup reported Wednesday a seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate of 7.3 percent in mid-October, far below the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ controversial September rate of 7.9 percent, which is seasonally adjusted.
“The decline in unemployment but uptick in the number of Americans working part time but looking for full-time work is likely the result of seasonal hiring, which picks up in the fall for Halloween and continues through the end of the holiday season,” writes Gallup.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7.7 for the month, according to Gallup, still lower than the BLS number. Gallup’s results were based on its daily tracking surveys of more than 30,000 people from Sept. 16-Oct. 15.
“Still, seasonally adjusted employment, which accounts for these types of periodic fluctuations, has declined modestly since the end of September. This is a promising sign that employers are adding jobs that will last into the new year,” Gallup writes.
This preliminary unemployment figure may show a sign of the economy starting to pick back up.
Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions Index, however, has deteriorated this month, giving a very worrisome outlook for future hiring.
“Despite the stronger than expected employment report for October, both hiring indices fell to multi-year lows,” Morgan Stanley writes, adding, “Given the volatility of the component indices, it’s too early to make a strong call, but these indices warrant close attention in the coming months.”
“Optimism surrounding supportive monetary policy has faded while fiscal cliff and election uncertainty have steadily risen,” wrote Morgan Stanley economist Dane Vrabac. “The stronger than expected employment report did little to boost enthusiasm.
This news came on the same day that the National Association of Home Builders reported the housing index climbed to the highest it’s been since 2006, indicating higher confidence and growth in the housing market.
“The consumer is coming back,” reports Business Insider, however, “persistent business uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff could eventually hit the consumer through a higher unemployment.”
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