I’ve been operating under the assumption that Nevada is a blue state for three reasons:
1. Harry Reid’s political machine (and the SEIU workers who operate the voting machines.)
2. Democrats dominate Clark County (home of Vegas), and Clark County dominates Nevada.
3. The state’s Republican Party (and the Clark County GOP) are apparently in disarray, having been overrun by Ron Paul supporters.
The arguments for a Romney win include Nevada’s very bad economy, and of course, that there is a large Mormon population. Still, my assumption has been that Obama would win the state.
But a smart source in the state emails me some thoughts that might make Team Romney a little more optimistic:
The consensus is that Obama v romney is close mainly because nobody believes the dems actually registered 127 k.
Also since 04 we have had 2 democrat wave elections and an awful GOP candidate in 10. In other words GOP turnout has been depressed which causes more ability for dems to campaign in GOP territory the last three elections.
That is all over now. President is focused on college kids. Also when I see the Obama turnout machine it is union people who are not exactly working hard as they go door to door.
Bottom line, if you believe electorate will be like 08, you believe democrats have not fled the state and Vegas that has lost millions of jobs and foreclosures, you believe the rurals won’t swing heavily to GOP, you believe washoe county will go Obama then yes dems should win
But, independents go with who has energy and Romney supported have their signs out and proudly support.
Obama’s people have to be dragged to the polls. Question is, can Obama drag enough of his people and will they stay loyal.