The latest Pennsylvania absentee ballot returns are in and show Republicans opening up a 19-point lead over the Democrats — a 17-point swing from the 2008 absentee results.
Romney continues to demonstrate momentum in Ohio, with the latest absentee returns showing a nine-point swing to Republicans compared to 2008.
This spells trouble for the Obama campaign, even if Obama is leading the early voting in Ohio (which isn’t necessarily true). In 2008, Obama trailed McCain by 1.9 percent among the 295,000 absentee voters in Pennsylvania. In 2012, Obama trails Governor Romney by 18.8 percent among the 115,000 absentee voters (assuming Democrats vote for Obama, Republicans vote for Romney). Obama won the state by 10 percent overall in 2008.
In 2008, Democrats had a 15.6 percent advantage among the 1.4 million absentee voters in Ohio. Democrats now lead by only 6.5 percent among the state’s 1.2 million absentee voters (where data is available). In Ohio, voters don’t register by parties, but we can determine party by how they voted in previous primaries. President Obama won Ohio by 4.6 percent in 2008.
These early indicators aren’t always conclusive, but it sure should make the Obama campaign uncomfortable — and give conservatives added energy heading into next week.
Conservatives, including American Majority Action’s grassroots volunteers, have helped turn Pennsylvania into a swing state. This doesn’t just happen. While the economy and the first presidential debate have pushed more voters to doubt the president’s ability to lead, groups like American Majority Action have been organizing in the state for months.
Since Labor Day, American Majority Action’s multiple offices have engaged more than 400 staff and volunteers to knock on tens of thousands of doors across swing states delivering a message about the need for limited government.
Victory in Ohio is now in reach. Pennsylvania was considered an easy win for Obama earlier this year, but we believe it’s totally in play. If the Keystone State goes red next Tuesday, it will be because of the hard work of hundreds of concerned taxpayers who gave their time to keep America free.
Ned Ryun is the President and CEO of American Majority Action. Learn more about what you can do to help at www.AmericanMajorityAction.org.