With all due apologies to Nate Silver, predicting the outcome of a presidential election is always something of a fool’s errand. Regardless of whether you’re a statistician, a campaign strategist, a revered pundit or just some lowly political reporter, your chances of precisely picking the final outcome is dependent on too many last-minute variables to be considered anything more than a somewhat-informed guess.
But if the smartest minds in the business — your Michael Barones, George Wills and, yes, Nate Silvers — can have a little fun every four years with their predictions, why can’t we?
Caveats aside, here’s how some of The Daily Caller’s best and brightest see Tuesday’s election working out. And if you think you’ve a better guess, please leave it in the comments below for your shot at bragging rights.
NAME: W. JAMES ANTLE III
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTION:
Obama wins, 271 – 267
Perhaps a lifetime spent voting for Republicans in Massachusetts, and for Ron Paul and Alan Keyes, has made me unduly pessimistic, but I suspect this election will be John Kerry’s revenge. This time the unpopular, unsuccessful blue-state incumbent just barely squeaks by, with Ohio making the difference. I wouldn’t be surprised if Al Gore got his revenge too, with Mitt Romney winning the popular vote.
Even if you believe, as I do, that many battleground state pollsters are being overly generous in their Democratic turnout assumptions, it just feels like hoping for too much for that to tip the balance in Romney’s favor in every single swing state where he now trails. This is especially true in the states where Barack Obama isn’t that far below 50 percent.
Caveat #1: If Romney does indeed carry all the states predicted in this scenario — no small feat since I give him Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire with Gary Johnson on the ballot — he only needs one additional “leaning Obama” state, not necessarily Ohio, to win.
Caveat #2: This prediction violates the Redskins rule, but there is something fundamentally unjust about a world in which Cam Newton prevails over RG3.
NAME: NICHOLAS BALLASY
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTION:
Romney wins, 276 – 262
Throughout October, many polls showed that the majority of Americans think Governor Romney will handle economic issues better than President Obama. The economy is the number one issue on the minds of voters mostly due to the nation’s 7.9 percent unemployment rate — slightly higher than when President Obama took office. The economic factor will likely tip key swing states in Gov. Romney’s favor.
The outcome of the race will be determined by the voter turnout in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
I predict Governor Romney will take Ohio due to the state of the nation’s economy and his support among social conservatives, which delivered the state for George W. Bush in 2004. Romney has been polling higher than Obama in Virginia and Florida so I have added them to his column in my Electoral College prediction. President Obama’s support remains strong in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada, which he carried in 2008, so I think the president will win these states again. Wisconsin, GOP Vice Presidential nominee Rep. Paul Ryan’s home state, voted for Obama by a wide margin in 2008 but the race is a tie this time around. The state voted for Republican Scott Walker in June’s recall election despite strong union opposition so I think it can be added to the Romney column as well.
NAME: DAVID MARTOSKO
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTION:
Romney wins, 296 – 242
I think Romney will take Ohio. The differential between his massive early- and absentee-vote advantage in 2008 and this year’s ground truth is already enough to wipe out his previous margin of victory in the Buckeye State. Colorado, Iowa and Nevada are probably lost causes for the GOP, but Pennsylvania will flip into the red column — partially because Hurricane Sandy will depress some turnout in Obama-friendly Philadelphia, and because the new Black Panthers have been warned this time.
The Southeast all goes for Romney, including Florida, both Carolinas and Virginia. I’m basing that last pick on an unscientific yard-sign and bumper-sticker survey in Northern Virginia, which is usually an overwhelming Obama stronghold but now looks no better for Obama than 55-45. (Romney has also done well in the Norfolk area, running ads about military spending where there’s a massive Navy Yard.)
Finally, I give New Hampshire to Obama, owing to Gary Johnson splitting off enough libertarians in the North country to turn the tide. Romney will pick up either Michigan or Wisconsin but not both. I arbitrarily chose to give him Wisconsin because of the Ryan factor.
NAME: ALEX PAPPAS
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTION:
Romney wins, 270 – 268
I predict that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama by a razor-thin margin: just two electoral votes.
Romney will win in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Ohio.
Obama will put up a very strong fight, winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.
Romney will win the popular vote. I’ll also go out on a limb and say Barack Obama will not win Alabama.
NAME: WILL RAHN
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTION:
Obama wins, 275 – 263
The good news will come late for Romney as he picks up unexpected wins in Colorado and Iowa. Otherwise, I see President Obama sweeping the northern swing states, including the all-important Ohio.
Gary Johnson just won’t be enough of a factor in New Hampshire to keep the Northeast from staying solidly blue, and Pennsylvania will join Wisconsin and Minnesota in the GOP’s “bridge too far” column.
Still, it’s not all bad news for Republicans: I have Virginia, North Carolina and Florida going for Romney, which would mean the GOP will have at least regained its standing in the South after the disaster that was 2008. There’s also a very good chance Romney wins the popular vote, particularly if the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy results in lower turnout in New York and New Jersey.
The big question come Wednesday, should my prediction play out, is whether conservatives and Republican-leaning independents blame their defeat on Romney’s weakness as a candidate. Otherwise, the tensions between the Party’s many factions will likely break down into a period of internecine bloodletting not seen in conservative politics since the rise of Reagan.
NAME: GREGG RE
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTION:
Obama wins, 290 – 248
Nate Silver doesn’t realize that the models and simulations he tirelessly iterates to the immense satisfaction of his superiors actually have a tragic, practical purpose. On Nov. 6, the electoral map will precisely match Silver’s state-by-state predictions, revealing to everyone in the New York Times’ secret command school that his gift for destroying the Republican threat is as real as it is powerful.
“I will program your battles now, not the computer,” General Petraeus will tell the former baseball statistician, as CNN holograms systematically call Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio and Wisconsin for Obama, by massive margins. “From now on the enemy is more clever than you. From now on the enemy is stronger than you. From now on you are always about to lose… but you will win. You will learn to defeat the enemy.”
For all the world like Ender Wiggin, Silver will immediately leave his jeesh and enter into a deep depression. Mankind, lacking a new enemy half as fearsome as Mitt Romney and the Republicans, will begin waging brutal, neverending war against itself. Millions will die, and Silver will become hunted for his talent.
Years later, Silver will come across an egg laid by Ann Romney on Newt Gingrich’s moon base. Through telepathy, Silver will learn that Romney and the Republicans had come in peace. Taking the egg in hand, with a grin so wide it will threaten to split his face into two bloody halves, Silver will promise the queen that he will help start the Republican Party again on a new, more hopeful planet elsewhere in the Solar System.
NAME: JAMIE WEINSTEIN
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTION:
Romney wins, 315 – 223
President Obama is going to have a lot of time next year to write his third autobiography. I’m with Michael Barone: This is going to be a 315-223 landslide.
I was a little more confident before Hurricane Sandy, but this election was determined long ago. With as bad an economy as we have, America is ready to give someone else a chance so long as the alternative candidate is deemed acceptable. Some say that became clear after the first debate, and I agree.
But the die was cast long before that, because Romney was always an acceptable alternative: Sooner or later, the American people were going to pay attention and realize that. This doesn’t necessarily mean he will be a good president. I have my hopes, but also lots of doubts. But he’s going to get to take a swing at it — unless, I’m out of my mind, in which case, my sole consolation is that no matter how crazy my prediction is, it can’t be dumber than Jim Cramer’s.
Of the swing states, I give Romney: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and the big surprise of Pennsylvania.