TheDC predicts the winner of the presidential election

Romney wins, 270 – 268

I predict that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama by a razor-thin margin: just two electoral votes.

Romney will win in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Obama will put up a very strong fight, winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.

Romney will win the popular vote. I’ll also go out on a limb and say Barack Obama will not win Alabama.

Obama wins, 275 – 263

The good news will come late for Romney as he picks up unexpected wins in Colorado and Iowa. Otherwise, I see President Obama sweeping the northern swing states, including the all-important Ohio.

Gary Johnson just won’t be enough of a factor in New Hampshire to keep the Northeast from staying solidly blue, and Pennsylvania will join Wisconsin and Minnesota in the GOP’s “bridge too far” column.

Still, it’s not all bad news for Republicans: I have Virginia, North Carolina and Florida going for Romney, which would mean the GOP will have at least regained its standing in the South after the disaster that was 2008. There’s also a very good chance Romney wins the popular vote, particularly if the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy results in lower turnout in New York and New Jersey.

The big question come Wednesday, should my prediction play out, is whether conservatives and Republican-leaning independents blame their defeat on Romney’s weakness as a candidate. Otherwise, the tensions between the Party’s many factions will likely break down into a period of internecine bloodletting not seen in conservative politics since the rise of Reagan.

Obama wins, 290 – 248

Nate Silver doesn’t realize that the models and simulations he tirelessly iterates to the immense satisfaction of his superiors actually have a tragic, practical purpose. On Nov. 6, the electoral map will precisely match Silver’s state-by-state predictions, revealing to everyone in the New York Times’ secret command school that his gift for destroying the Republican threat is as real as it is powerful.

I will program your battles now, not the computer,” General Petraeus will tell the former baseball statistician, as CNN holograms systematically call Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio and Wisconsin for Obama, by massive margins. “From now on the enemy is more clever than you. From now on the enemy is stronger than you. From now on you are always about to lose… but you will win. You will learn to defeat the enemy.”

For all the world like Ender Wiggin, Silver will immediately leave his jeesh and enter into a deep depression. Mankind, lacking a new enemy half as fearsome as Mitt Romney and the Republicans, will begin waging brutal, neverending war against itself. Millions will die, and Silver will become hunted for his talent.

Years later, Silver will come across an egg laid by Ann Romney on Newt Gingrich’s moon base. Through telepathy, Silver will learn that Romney and the Republicans had come in peace. Taking the egg in hand, with a grin so wide it will threaten to split his face into two bloody halves, Silver will promise the queen that he will help start the Republican Party again on a new, more hopeful planet elsewhere in the Solar System.

Romney wins, 315 – 223

President Obama is going to have a lot of time next year to write his third autobiography. I’m with Michael Barone: This is going to be a 315-223 landslide.

I was a little more confident before Hurricane Sandy, but this election was determined long ago. With as bad an economy as we have, America is ready to give someone else a chance so long as the alternative candidate is deemed acceptable. Some say that became clear after the first debate, and I agree.

But the die was cast long before that, because Romney was always an acceptable alternative: Sooner or later, the American people were going to pay attention and realize that. This doesn’t necessarily mean he will be a good president. I have my hopes, but also lots of doubts. But he’s going to get to take a swing at it — unless, I’m out of my mind, in which case, my sole consolation is that no matter how crazy my prediction is, it can’t be dumber than Jim Cramer’s.

Of the swing states, I give Romney: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and the big surprise of Pennsylvania.

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