TheDC’s election prediction roundup


Nate Silver, The New York Times: “All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you’ll excuse the cliché, but it’s appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast.”

John Dima, Kenyan witchdoctor: “His father was my friend; his grandfather was also my good friend. So I predict that Obama will win the presidency, that’s all.”

Ezra Klein, The Washington Post: I have a simple rule when predicting presidential elections: The polls, taken together, are typically pretty accurate. Systemic problems, while possible, aren’t likely. There are a lot of pollsters producing a lot of polls and each and every one of them has every incentive to try and get it right. When they converge, it’s typically with good reason. And right now, they have converged. The 3-4 percentage point error necessary for Romney to be the real favorite in this race is extremely unlikely.

Paul Krugman, New York Times: As Nate Silver (who has lately attracted a remarkable amount of hate — welcome to my world, Nate!) clearly explains, state polling currently points overwhelmingly to an Obama victory. It’s possible that the polls are systematically biased — and this bias has to encompass almost all the polls, since even Rasmussen is now showing Ohio tied. So Romney might yet win. But a knife-edge this really isn’t, and any reporting suggesting that it is makes you stupider.

Toure, MSNBC (viewpoint in Time): The national snapshot derived from that avalanche of polls has, I and others think, outgrown their usefulness in assessing the campaign because Romney’s big lead in the South (16 points in a recent Washington Post/ABC poll) pumps up his national numbers more than it helps his electoral college showing. He has what many are calling a “map problem.” Obama has an advantage in every other region and his lead in Ohio, the ultimate bellwether, has remained, as has his lead in Wisconsin, which has gone democratic in the last six elections. If the president wins Ohio and Wisconsin, the race is over. Iowa is also leaning toward Obama and has gone democratic in four of the last five elections.

Jim Cramer, CNBC: “The Presidential race is nowhere as close as the polls suggest.”

Robert Shrum, The Daily Beast: “The outcome will be decided in the battleground states—and here Obama has many more paths to a 270 electoral-vote majority. For example, he could lose Ohio—and still get there if he took New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado. But Ohio is anything but lost; after dispensing with the GOP-infected numbers of Rasmussen, and the figments of the fly-by-night pollsters, the president has a consistent margin of 4 to 5 percent—and is at or near 50 percent.”

Bob Dylan: “Don’t believe the media. I think it’s going to be a landslide” for Obama.

Charles Barkley: “We are going to beat you like a drum in November. But don’t take it personally. I like you. You seem like a nice guy. But you’re going down bro.” — Barkley to Mitt Romney, May 2012

Astrologists: Thirty-one “top astrologers” told politicalastrologyblog.com that President Obama’s astrological chart predicts that he will be the winner of the 2012 election, while 14 said that Mitt Romney’s chart predicts he will win.