Amnesty won’t magically make Hispanics more Republican

Mitt Romney was one amnesty for illegal immigrants away from becoming president of the United States.

That, in essence, is the conventional wisdom following an election in which the Republican presidential candidate lost the Hispanic vote by an eye-popping 71 percent to 27 percent margin.

MSNBC political analyst Chuck Todd predicted┬álast week that “immigration reform” will get “80 to 90 votes” in the U.S. Senate after the GOP’s great Latino lashing of 2012.

“Republicans will run, not walk, in trying to support that now,” Todd said.

So far, it’s been more like tiptoeing. House Speaker John Boehner told ABC News a “comprehensive approach” to immigration “is long overdue.”

“This issue has been around far too long,” Boehner remarked, apparently bored with musty old things like borders, national sovereignty and the rule of law.

Conservative pundits as diverse as Sean Hannity and Charles Krauthammer also apparently agree that a path to citizenship is the only path to victory, or that green cards are a get-out-of-jail-free card for Republicans.

While we’re at it, we might as well purchase apologetic Hallmark cards for George W. Bush and John McCain, who were told to run, not walk, off a short pier when they advocated this loose-border strategy before.

“Republicans find religion on immigration reform,” writes the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza. “Is it too late?”

A better question: Is this finding religion or falling for an old Beltway superstition? The boosters of amnesty in exchange for the elusive Hispanic vote may be the witch doctors of American politics.

Let’s stipulate that some Republicans have said dumb and nasty things over the course of the immigration debate, which is obviously no way to win the votes of Hispanics and recent immigrants.

Worse, the immigration debate itself has frequently been miscast as a referendum on the acceptance of Hispanics in American society — one that has forced most Republicans to appear to be on the wrong side of that question in order to be on the right side of some woefully misguided legislation.

But caving on bad legislation — or writing watered-down Republican alternatives — to address this unfortunate misconception is the easy way out.

For starters, immigration is far from the Republicans’ only problem with Hispanic voters. Proposition 187, California’s notorious 1994 anti-illegal immigration ballot initiative that supposedly lost Latinos for the GOP forever, received a higher percentage of the Hispanic vote than many Republican candidates.

Hispanics have a high labor force participation rate, but are nevertheless disproportionately poor. In 2011, more than 40 percent of Hispanics reported that they lacked health insurance, which makes Obamacare potentially appealing.

Low incomes force families to rely on government assistance. According to one study, “Households with children with the highest welfare use rates are those headed by immigrants from the Dominican Republic (82 percent), Mexico and Guatemala (75 percent), and Ecuador (70 percent).”

One survey found that 73 percent of Hispanics opposed cutting Medicare spending and 83 percent preferred to deal with the deficit by raising taxes on the wealthy in conjunction with some budget reductions.