The inflow is politically contentious.
An April 20-22 poll by Fox News of 1,009 registered voters showed that 55 percent of respondents want a reduction in the number of legal immigrants. That 55 percent includes 45 percent of non-whites and 62 percent of people without college degrees.
The new bill will actually reduce annual immigration to the United States to only 1.59 million people, down by 151,000 from the organization’s estimate of recent annual immigration, said Philip Wolgin, a senior policy analyst at CAP.
Over a decade, the bill will add only 17 million new immigrants to the population, he told The Daily Caller.
CAP’s immigrant number is lower that NumbersUSA’s estimate, said Wolgin, partly because the CAP doesn’t count the amnesty of 11 million illegal immigrants as immigration.
“It is disingenuous to actually include the 11 million people. … These aren’t new immigrants, they’re already here, they’re already working,” he said.
Similarly, CAP excludes another group of roughly 4.5 million foreigners now waiting in line to join their relatives in the United States. They’re already slated to eventually join their U.S. relatives, so the bill’s decision to provide them an immediate entrance shouldn’t increase the bill’s 17 million inflow, Wolgin said.
“What we’re doing with this bill is taking a rather chaotic and unwieldy system which has hundreds of thousands of people coming in without legal status and moving them into legal channels,” he said.
Wolgin also said CAP’s estimate of future inflow is based on the average immigration inflow for 2002 to 2011.
But CAP’s analysis excludes two years with very high inflow of illegals — 2000 and 2001 — and includes several recession years with very low inflow.
Those two high-inflow years were excluded, he told TheDC, because “if we had used the full ten-year span, we were worried that it would be skewed towards much higher numbers.”
NumbersUSA also excludes 2001 and 2001, and bases its predictions on the inflows from 2003 to 2012 to counter likely criticism from immigration-advocates in the media.
The lower average past inflow helped CAP to lower the likely future legal inflow to 1.6 million per year, and also the likely future illegal inflow to only 69,000 per year, Wolgin said.
Wolgin’s team predicts a total family unification inflow of 4.7 million relatives, not counting the 4.5 million waiting in line.
Sessions predicts a family unification inflow of 8.6 million, plus the 4.5 million now waiting in line.
NumbersUSA predicts an inflow of 9.3 million relatives, plus the 4.5 million now in line.
CAP also estimated that worldwide demand for U.S. citizenship would not keep pace with the bill’s increased number of job-related opportunities for immigration increased.
The number of immigrants who get green-cards from multinational employers will remains flat at 1.5 million over the next decade, Wolgin said.
In contrast, Sessions’ estimate combined several non-agricultural work-related channels and predicted that the number of employment-related immigrants and their families will double to 4.32 million over a decade.