Tom Tancredo has come a long way since his 2008 bid for the White House. As the Republican Party has morphed from the ruling party of Bush to Obama’s petulant, frustrated adversary, the former Colorado representative has also had to adjust. Tancredo, the congressman-turned-presidential-hopeful, turned Gubernatorial candidate, is a microcosm for broader changes within the GOP.
In a 2007 debate, Tancredo was a neocon’s neocon, with the exception of his stance immigration. Most famously he supported the idea of nuking the Muslim holy cities of Mecca and Medina.
This Tom Tancredo no longer exists. Or at least not in public. He has been replaced by a new Tom Tancredo, characterized by a newfound mix of working-class populism and millennial libertarianism that he’s counting on to create a winning coalition for his 2014 gubernatorial bid.
He announced his support for marijuana legalization in 2012 and recently stood up for rural Coloradoans, who have been ignored by Democrat Governor John Hickenlooper and the urban-focused legislature. He has made several talk radio and television apperances arguing against the Gang of Eight’s comprehensive immigration reform. Tancredo called it a “clash,” pitting “the elites vs. the people.”
He hasn’t swayed on longtime conservative priorities like the Second Amendment and opposition to benefits for illegal aliens.
This evolution by mainline Republicans isn’t so much baiting for votes as it is from growing away from Bushism, and towards a more populist and libertarian brand of the GOP.
Both Buchananite working-class populism and the anti-war libertarianism of Ron Paul are becoming more mainstream.
Consistent majorities opposed intervening in Syria, and the drumbeat was practically nonexistent outside the GOP’s McCain-Graham-Ayotte circle. It is more popular to “Stand With Rand” than to “Bomb-Bomb-Bomb, Bomb-Bomb Iran.”
Conservatives largely framed their opposition to the Rubio-Schumer amnesty bill as concern for low-skilled workers whose wages would be depressed. They championed the “47 percent.”
Right-leaning pundits have latched onto this trend, identifying a “libertarian populist” message they hope can win the Senate back for Republicans in 2014, and then the White House two years later.
Paul Krugman has tried to pre-empt the growing trend, calling libertarian populism unworkable “bunk,” and arguing that many members of the white working class are on food stamps or Medicaid and therefore more likely to vote Democrat or not at all.
Krugman misses the point that the conservative base is poorer, working class whites and not Wall Street Tycoons. Blue-collar workers are revolting against what they feel has been taken from them, not what they can soak from the welfare state.
Based upon Krugman’s assessment of voter behavior, southern states that are poorer and less white than New England should be more Democratic. That’s not the case, which suggests voters are more influenced by non-economic factors.
Fellow New York Times columnist Ross Douthat notes another benefit to the libertarian populist message; “the kind of populist arguments that resonate with that constituency might actually offer the Republicans a better chance with minority voters in the longer run as well.”
And while populism may resonate with the working class, it’s the hybrid libertarianism that could win over some of the youth vote. It could help bridge the twelve point gap Obama enjoyed among voters under thirty.
Libertarian populism has limits, and it doesn’t have a uniting leader. Rand Paul has championed certain libertarian causes and congressmen like Walter Jones and Lou Barletta routinely hit populist notes, but a fusionist leader on the national level is still waiting to be found.
On the state level, however, Tom Tancredo is in a dead-heat with incumbent Democrat Hickenlooper for the 2014 governor election.
Ryan James Girdusky writes from New York City. You can find him on twitter @RyJamesG or on his website RyanGirdusky.com.