What a difference six years makes.
In June 2007, a Gallup/USA Today poll found that a 32 percent plurality of Republican voters preferred Rudy Giuliani for president. John McCain was in second place at 19 percent. Ron Paul was near the bottom of the pack with just 1 percent of the vote.
Near the end of George W. Bush’s presidency, the GOP was still very much the hawks’ party.
But in July 2013, Rand Paul leads among Republicans nationally, at least according to a Public Policy Polling survey. At 16 percent, he is narrowly ahead of Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan. Marco Rubio is further behind.
Multiple polls have now found the younger Paul ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states in the 2016 Republican primary calendar. This time around, it is likely that the single-issue hawks — think John Bolton or Peter King — would hover around 1 percent if they were included in the polls.
Liz Cheney is running for the Republican senatorial nomination in Wyoming to solidify support for foreign policy views that were once almost universal in the party while her father was vice president.
Depending on which poll you believe, Cheney is trailing by either 28 points or 34 points.
A narrow majority of House Republicans who have served in Congress for less than five years voted for Michigan GOP Rep. Justin Amash’s amendment to defund the NSA’s national surveillance program. Wisconsin Republican Rep. James Sensenbrenner, a past chairman of the House Judiciary Committee and Patriot Act co-author, voted for it.
Even some Republicans who voted against it, like Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, voted with antiwar Democrats when President Barack Obama waged war in Libya without congressional approval. The Wall Street Journal editorial page called the 86 GOP lawmakers who joined her “Kucinich Republicans,” but maybe Robert Taft Republicans works better.
The party is changing on foreign policy and civil liberties, perhaps moving in the direction of the broader American public. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that only 15 percent of Americans favored military action in Syria. Just 11 percent are willing to even arm the rebels.
“Whether you voted for Romney or Obama, they have the same opinion on Syria,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
The polling on Iran is more mixed, but a recent CBS News/New York Times poll found that 59 percent of Americans believe Tehran can be contained, 21 percent believe the regime is not a threat and only 15 percent believe immediate action is required.
It is easy to envision world events or domestic political developments that could make the country — and especially conservatives — more hawkish again. But reluctant warriors on the right today have an opening that was unthinkable just a few years ago.
Yet the paleoconservatives and libertarians at the forefront of these developments have an amazing capacity for self-marginalization. Being “Beautiful Losers” comes more naturally than being on the cusp of victory.
Therefore, the natural paleo thing to do at this moment would be to turn our attention away from favorable shifts in public opinion and instead focus on historic controversies where we even disagree amongst ourselves. Re-litigate wars that were long ago concluded while politicians in both parties want to start new ones in 2013.
“Let’s grow up, conservatives,” Barry Goldwater told the 1960 Republican National Convention. “Let’s, if we want to take this party back — and I think we can someday — let’s get to work.”
For conservatives who don’t trust Washington to run health care at home or nation-build abroad, someday may be now. The most popular war among conservatives may be the Twitter hashtag. The opportunity to mainstream views that have spent decades on the periphery of the American right is at hand.
Will that opportunity be seized? Or will it be wasted on infighting, esoteric ideological crusades and other frivolous pursuits? Will we ride to the sound of the guns or re-convene the circular firing squad?
Taft’s political descendants should heed Goldwater’s advice.
W. James Antle III is the editor of The Daily Caller News Foundation and author of the recently released book “Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?“ Follow him on Twitter.