Pro-Democratic polling outfit Public Policy Polling continues to appear desperate to push its own narrative of a changing Georgia rather than offering a true snapshot of the state, with separate polls blatantly defying the state’s electoral composition in a span of two weeks.
The first sought to paint Republican Governor Nathan Deal, whose re-election has long been considered near-afterthought in spite of two primary opponents, as suddenly vulnerable to a challenge from beleaguered Georgia Democrats.
Some 34 percent of respondents gave the incumbent a favorable mark, a precipitous 10 point drop from PPP’s August numbers.
Meanwhile, Democratic state senator Jason Carter, grandson of the former president, had apparently closed a 48-33 deficit without even announcing a challenge to Deal, now only trailing 44-40 percent.
That was followed by another PPP tally of the Georgia Senate race, sporting a wide-open GOP primary and Michelle Nunn, awaiting a May coronation from Democrats in-state and nationally.
Here was a narrative aimed at laying shutdown backlash at the feet of Peach State Republicans, and an embedded advantage for Nunn defying virtually any statewide contest in over a decade.
As expected, the numbers showed the Points of Light CEO, also brandishing a famous last name, statistically tying a generic GOPer while holding a single-digit lead when paired against a trio of would-be opponents.
All of which serves to offer optimism to a party far removed from its glory days, and eager for resurgence wrought by changing demographics that has onlookers branding Georgia a Virginia in-waiting.
Yet the real culprit of the shift is a precipitous altering of the state’s demographic trends, not backlash to GOP tactics or a relatively well-liked incumbent gone sour.
The aforementioned August survey featured an electorate 71 percent white in its makeup, yet somehow that share massively decreased, dipping to 63 and 62 percent this month.
Had PPP used the previous weights in these recent polls, Nunn would have found herself facing a 6 point disadvantage and Deal would have led a hypothetical Democratic challenger by 10.