The conventional political wisdom assumes that the strong showing by Republicans on Election Day will hem in President Obama and force him to compromise and move toward the center. That is wishful thinking. All the evidence about Obama to date says that the worst is yet to come.
Ever since the Republicans regained the House, Obama has repeatedly ignored Congress and continuously expanded the depth and breadth of executive action. In both domestic and foreign policy he has acted without any regard for the constitutional system of checks and balances. Obama was supposed to be some type of transcendent political figure for the 21st Century. Instead, he is more like some petty despot out of 17th Century Europe.
Even when compromise and conciliation was the politically prudent strategy, Obama has refused to do it. The clearest example is the Ebola debacle. The more Republicans pushed for tighter screening and quarantines, the more Obama dug in and refused to change course. Even when his inaction started causing real political pain for Democratic candidates, Obama still refused to budge. How difficult would it have been in September to announce enhanced screening procedures, or otherwise meet quarantine advocates halfway? It certainly would have helped his own party. But Obama stubbornly stuck to his own untenable position.
His lack of discipline and immaturity are not only an increasing problem when it comes to policy, but are now bleeding into politics. In spite of polls that universally showed his unpopularity, he could not resist handing Republicans an ideal sound bite when he whined that Democrat incumbents were responsible for supporting his agenda. As if that was not enough, as the days of the campaign drew to a close one of his foreign policy advisors thought it wise to attack Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, hurling an epithet hardly appropriate for diplomatic circles.
Now the country is faced with the reality of a president who cannot even keep himself and his staff under control to help his own political allies. Such a performance bodes ill for the next two years.
What is most likely to come is two years of a president who no longer believes he is answerable to anyone, not his own party, not the next Democratic nominee for president, and certainly not the people of the country at large.
What will the long awaited “executive action” (or is it rule by decree?) on immigration bring? Will Obama unilaterally end all deportations? Will he withdraw border patrol assets, creating a de facto open border? Given the administration’s incoherent response to Ebola, any loosening of immigrations policy will likely lead to utter chaos.
Foreign policy is the area of the greatest danger. Obama has dithered while ISIS has moved from a rebellious group of fanatics to a full-blown military operation carrying out genocide. The only determination the president has demonstrated is the determination to ignore the advice of his much more experienced critics.
His apparent decision to cut any deal, no matter how bad, with Iran has recently been outed. Nevermind that this theocratic regime doesn’t recognize the right of another nuclear power, Israel, to exist; or that it is widely believed an Iranian bomb would spur the Saudis to produce their own nuclear weapons. Nevermind that the last thing the most violent and volatile region on the planet needs are the ultimate weapons of mass destruction, that can be delivered in minutes to a defenseless target. What obsessed Obama is his own personal legacy. A nuclear Iran will not be a legacy of peace, but one of destabilization and possible annihilation.
There is a small political silver lining for Republicans. It has become clear that Obama is not about to sacrifice himself or his ego to help his fellow Democrats. Every autocratic move, every petulant response will be another problem for Hillary Clinton. And given Obama’s prickliness, when Clinton decides to separate from Obama and become a critic (and she will have to) Democratic politics will become bloodier than anything seen since 1968.
The key issue for conservatives is handling Obama’s certain depredations without hurting the chances of winning the 2016 presidential election. Congressional Republicans will have to be careful not to make Obama a victim. Only by being disciplined and picking the most important fights over the most important issues can the Republicans win the next two years. In politics, one must never get in the way of your opponent’s self-destruction.
Lame duck presidents have always made some bad decisions. Ford mooted statehood for Puerto Rico. George H.W. Bush sank our feet into Somalia. Bill Clinton pardoned Marc Rich. But those errors of judgment will pale in comparison to what Barack Obama has in store. The worst is yet to come.